Tuesday, November 29, 2011

2011 N.L. First Basemen

With the exodus of first base talent to the American League last winter, you would expect the prices for the top N.L. first basemen to drop as a result.

Ten Most Expensive N.L. First Basemen, 2011
#
Player
$
Sal
+/-
CBS
LABR
TW
PK
2010
1
$35
44
-8
49
40
42
44
$40
2
$34
40
-6
45
39
36
36
$40
3
$34
33
1
35
31
34
30
$22
4
$25
32
-7
32
33
30
30
$25
5
$21
20
1
20
20
21
19
$17
6
$19
20
-1
20
19
21
20
$20
7
$7
20
-13
22
16
21
16
$17
8
$11
19
-8
20
19
19
20
$27
9
$17
19
-2
21
17
18
16
$12
10
$0
16
-16
10
19
19
18
$20

Average
$20
26
-6
27
25
26
25
$24

The average salary does drop...sort of.

Yes, the $26 average salary per player is a $3 drop from what this group was paid in 2010. However, since the players you see above earned $24 per player in '10, these guys are still getting a raise.

On average, CBS plays out much less like a Stage One league than they have so far. But that's only on average. CBS is still super aggressive on Pujols and Votto, blowing LABR, Tout Wars, and Rotoman away.

Take out the top two hitters and it's a split decision between the expert leagues. CBS "gets" Fielder, Davis, Pena and a share of Huff. LABR grabs Howard and a share of LaRoche. Tout Wars gets Lee, Sanchez and the other share of LaRoche.

Rotoman misses out on everyone save for the other share of Huff.

The big hitters here do pretty well. You don't want to take a $4 loss per player across the board, but getting $34 or $35 worth of stats on your big-ticket hitters means that you're getting stats. Only Fielder and Lee turn a profit, so if you bought in the middle you took a loss anyway.

Top 10 N.L. First Basemen, 2011
#
Player
$
Sal
+/-
CBS
LABR
TW
PK
2010
1
Albert Pujols
$35
44
-8
49
40
42
44
$40
2
Joey Votto
$34
40
-6
45
39
36
36
$40
3
Prince Fielder
$34
33
1
35
31
34
30
$22
4
$29
12
17
11
12
14
14
$11
5
Ryan Howard
$25
32
-7
32
33
30
30
$25
6
$22
13
8
12
13
15
11
$0
7
Carlos Lee
$21
20
1
20
20
21
19
$17
8
Gaby Sanchez
$19
20
-1
20
19
21
20
$20
9
$19
5
14
2
5
8
5
$8
10
$18
16
2
13
15
19
18
$18

Average
$26
24
2
24
23
24
23
$20


Compared to years past, there is a fair amount of variance between these two lists. Surprisingly, most of the differences aren't due to young hitters (Freeman), but because of a return by the old guard (Berkman, Helton and - to a lesser extent - Loney).

Adding these cheaper, better hitters brings the average price points even closer together. Tout Wars is the big winner on these new hitters. They get Freeman, Helton and Loney and tie Rotoman on Berkman.

I remember sitting in the Tout Wars auction at the time and thinking that those four in particular went for too much money (I bought Votto and two third basemen). As it turned out, getting any one of those four save for Loney would have been a very successful play.

You do have to spend your money, though. If you had grabbed Berkman and LaRoche, you would have saved some but still wouldn't have bought as much in the way of stats as you would have if you simply socked it all into Pujols or Votto.

Obviously, the best choice in hindsight would be Berkman and Helton. But it's unlikely too many owners did that...and this is a hard course of action to recommend. This would have been a lot of risk tied into two aging sluggers who seemed to be in decline.

I can't completely endorse the CBS approach (paying over $40 for guys who don't run a lot is a lemon of a strategy), but I think LABR and Tout Wars are too conservative. You do want to make sure to spend on the big bats...or make sure that someone else does.



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