2011 A.L. Outfielders

For the second year in a row, the market backed off a little bit on the best American League outfielders.

Ten Most Expensive A.L. Outfielders, 2011

#	Player	$	Sal	+/-	CBS	LABR	TW	PK	2010
1	Carl Crawford	$16	40	-24	41	40	38	41	$40
2	Nelson Cruz	$21	34	-12	40	29	32	31	$27
3	Josh Hamilton	$26	32	-6	38	30	29	30	$38
4	Shin-Soo Choo	$11	31	-20	34	28	30	30	$30
5	B.J. Upton	$26	29	-3	29	29	29	29	$25
6	Jacoby Ellsbury	$45	29	16	28	30	29	30	$2
7	Alex Rios	$10	28	-18	31	27	26	29	$32
8	Ichiro Suzuki	$24	26	-2	28	24	26	28	$31
9	Juan Pierre	$20	24	-4	27	24	22	21	$33
10	Nick Markakis	$21	24	-3	28	22	22	24	$21
	Average	$22	30	-8	32	28	28	29	$28

Thirty dollars per player sounds like a lot, but two years ago the best outfielder was paid $33 on average. But then the best outfielders were expected to better in 2009. Seven outfielders earned $33 or more in 2008 compared to only four pulling this off in 2010.

LABR and Tout Wars, in particular, are fairly conservative with these players. They can't even see fit to give them a raise over what they earned in 2010, and this is the first chart where they're even more conservative than our penurious expert Rotoman. In the hypothetical four-way battle of the expert leagues and Rotoman's prices, CBS still dominates, getting Cruz, Hamilton, Choo, Rios, Suzuki, Pierre and Markakis, tying Rotoman on Crawford and tying everyone on Upton. The only player CBS misses out on is Ellsbury, who Rotoman and LABR tie on.

This is always as good a place as any to look and see if this is where CBS's prices finally fall off.

Next 10 Most Expensive (11-20) A.L. Outfielders, 2011

#	Player	$	Sal	+/-	CBS	LABR	TW	PK	2010
11	Brett Gardner	$25	22	2	27	18	22	21	$27
12	Torii Hunter	$19	22	-3	27	20	19	20	$24
13	Curtis Granderson	$37	21	15	21	20	23	21	$19
14	Adam Jones	$24	21	3	24	18	21	22	$21
15	Delmon Young	$13	21	-8	24	20	19	23	$26
16	Nick Swisher	$19	21	-2	23	19	20	18	$25
17	Rajai Davis	$13	21	-7	23	19	20	20	$27
18	Vernon Wells	$13	19	-6	20	18	19	20	$24
19	Bobby Abreu	$15	19	-3	16	19	21	21	$24
20	Carlos Quentin	$15	17	-2	19	17	16	19	$17
	Average	$19	20	-1	22	19	20	21	$23

CBS starts slowing down but still pays more per player than anyone else here (Rotoman's inching up, though). CBS "gets" Gardner, Hunter, Jones, Young, Swisher, and Davis and ties Rotoman on Wells and Quentin. Tout Wars gets Granderson (a great buy) and ties Rotoman on Abreu. LABR gets shut out.

This looks like a sweet spot for bidders. You don't want to lose money, but spending $20 to get back $19 is a pretty solid rate of return.

That's the optimist's view. The reality is that there are two big winners among the 20 most expensive players (Ellsbury and Granderson) and one slight winner (Jones). Eighty-five percent of the players here lost money for their owners. That's a pretty big thumbs down.

So the winners are in this next group, right?

Next 10 Most Expensive (21-30) A.L. Outfielders, 2011

#	Player	$	Sal	+/-	CBS	LABR	TW	PK	2010
21	Austin Jackson	$17	17	0	15	18	18	20	$24
22	Denard Span	$6	17	-11	17	17	17	19	$19
23	Coco Crisp	$25	16	9	15	15	18	16	$19
24	Ryan Raburn	$11	16	-5	15	16	17	15	$15
25	Jason Kubel	$11	15	-3	14	16	14	18	$16
26	Grady Sizemore	$5	14	-9	18	13	12	14	$2
27	Travis Snider	$5	14	-9	17	12	14	12	$10
28	Peter Bourjos	$19	13	6	13	12	15	10	$4
29	Manny Ramirez	($1)	12	-13	6	16	13	10	$11
30	Franklin Gutierrez	$4	11	-7	7	12	14	14	$17
	Average	$10	15	-4	14	15	15	15	$14

This is the worst this group has done since I started tracking these data. But in terms of prior earnings, this is also the weakest group there has been since I've tracked this. So while this is a surprise, maybe it shouldn't be.

Finally - at long last - CBS starts tailing off.  The only hitters they get here are Sizemore and Snider. Here are the guys Rotoman has been waiting for all this time. He gets Jackson, Span and Kubel, and ties Tout Wars on Gutierrez. Tout Wars grabs Crisp and Raburn outright. If not for Manny, LABR would get shut out.

You can't blame anyone who tried here. This is usually a solid place to spend your money.

Historical Performance - A.L. OF #21-30

Year	$	Sal	+/-	Prior
2011	$10	15	-4	$14
2010	$18	15	3	$18
2009	$14	17	-3	$20
2008	$16	14	1	$15

It didn't work this year, but this is why I generally advise to look closely at prior year's performance, and not to pay for players in tiers or slots. That $14 per player is low compared to years past.

With so many players at the top losing money, you had to figure that there were some studs lying at the bottom of the heap.

Top 10 A.L. Outfielders 2011

#	Player	$	Sal	+/-	CBS	LABR	TW	PK	2010
1	Jacoby Ellsbury	$45	29	16	28	30	29	30	$2
2	Curtis Granderson	$37	21	15	21	20	23	21	$19
3	Melky Cabrera	$31	3	28	1	6	3	6	$9
4	Alex Gordon	$31	9	22	4	9	13	10	$3
5	Jeff Francoeur	$27	5	22	4	4	6	8	$12
6	Josh Hamilton	$26	32	-6	38	30	29	30	$38
7	B.J. Upton	$26	29	-3	29	29	29	29	$25
8	Coco Crisp	$25	16	9	15	15	18	16	$19
9	Brett Gardner	$25	22	2	27	18	22	21	$27
10	Ichiro Suzuki	$24	26	-2	28	24	26	28	$31
	Average	$30	19	11	20	19	20	20	$19

Sure, we all expected the best Roto outfield in 2011 to belong to the Kansas City Royals.

The result of these three surprises is that this is the cheapest crop of Top 10 outfielders there has been since I started compiling these charts. Nineteen dollars is a nice price to spend to get $30 of value back.

But this wasn't a soft spot. Ten players who earned $19 the year before cost $19 the following year. This isn't a headline; it's a yawner. The expert leagues and Rotoman think so too. Those average prices are a Stage Three yawnfest.

Outfield is the weakest it has been in American League Rotisserie leagues in quite some time, with the Melky Cabrera trade to San Francisco making it even weaker. There are a few names still floating around in the free agent pool that could improve matters, but right now it looks like you're going to once again be better off spending your money elsewhere in 2012.