2011 CBSSports.com A.L.-only Analysts Results: Second Base

Last year at this time, I commented that the crop of American League second basemen was strong. It would figure, then, that almost everyone at the position would fail to match expectations. I expected prices to slip this year, and for most hitters they did....with one incredible exception.

JOE MORGAN v.2011?

Robinson Cano $49.

Cano had a banner year in 2010. He was the fifth best hitter in A.L. 5x5 and earned $33. This price, though, is nothing short of folly. I went through this exercise with Miguel Cabrera, so I won't repeat it here. Cano cannot possibly earn this money. My bid was a little higher than his 2010 earnings, but even if you're bidding robustly for Cano, you should stop at $36-37.

ALMOST STUD-LY

Dustin Pedroia $35, Ian Kinsler $29.

It might seem puzzling that Pedroia would get a $3 pay raise from his 2010 price after an injury-riddled year, but I suspect that the market here is reacting more to the decline at the position more than to Pedroia. The same comments I made last year apply. If healthy, Pedroia should be a solid earner, but this is probably a good $5-7 over his realistic ceiling unless you think he has another MVP-esque year in the tank. Kinsler's performance has been all over the map in his five-year big league career. I think you have to discount a little bit for health while recognizing that a 30-20 season is a possibility even if Kinsler isn't running all of the time. It does seem like 2009 was the aberration when it came to power, so you might want to look at 20-20 with a .260 average and price from there.

THE LOW $20s

Gordon Beckham $22, Brian Roberts $22,  Ben Zobrist $21, Aaron Hill $20.

A number of fantasy resources are calling Beckham a potential sleeper or bargain, but all that does is drive up the price. Beckham sure did look like he had turned it around in July and August last year before a hand injury ruined his September. It's unlikely he'll be much of a bargain at this price; I'd stay in the high-teens or let him go elsewherE. Roberts continued to run at a 30 SB pace when he returned off of the DL, but his power numbers dipped somewhat. If Roberts is a one-trick pony, his value obviously takes a hit. One marker that gives his owners a little hope is his LD%; it stayed around where it was in 2009, making it possible that the reports that he wasn't "hitting the ball with the same authority" are overblown. I correctly predicted that Zobrist's 2009 was unsustainable, but I didn't expect the bottom to fall out the way it did in 2010. I expect better things in 2011, particularly because he ran a lot more. Paying for a 15/25 season with a .260 batting average isn't a bad idea. Hill was awful last year. Using BABIP to explain his woes barely explains it, because his LD% barely supports that notion. Will Hill bounce back? There was something fundamentally wrong with his approach at the plate. Maybe he fixed it this winter, but I wouldn't pay over $15 to find out.

MID TO HIGH-TEENS

Howie Kendrick $19, Chone Figgins $18, Tsuyoshi Nishioka $16, Sean Rodriguez $15.

After years of waiting for Kendrick to get healthy, the results last year when he was were good but less than eye opening. Kendrick could be a $25-30 player if everything broke right for him, but I'd stick with a $20 bid and play it safe. The bidding on Figgins seemed rather tepid to me, but then he had an awful year last year and was only worth owning because of the steals. If he runs again, this price could be a bargain if he bounces back elsewhere, but the line-up remains weak, the park remains poor, and Figgins is a year older. I wouldn't push him too far past this price. Nishioka will start for the Twins, but it's an open question as to what his numbers will look like. He was tremendous in his final year in Japan, but if he fits the profile of most Japanese hitters stateside, the speed will translate while the power won't. Will he hit .260 or .320? Rodriguez's prolific AAA power somewhat predictably didn't show up at Tampa in 2010. He did steal some bases, though, and a 15/15 year wouldn't be all that shocking. There is the possibility, though, that Zobrist will shift to second versus some righties to get Matt Joyce's bat in the line-up. If Rodriguez winds up in some kind of platoon he's obviously not going to be worth this price.

...AND A WHOLE LOT OF ENDGAME

Jason Donald $4, Mike Aviles $3, Mark Ellis $3, Carlos Guillen $3, Jayson Nix $3, Dustin Ackley $2, Reid Brignac $2, Maicer Izturis $1, Chris Getz $1, Scott Sizemore $1.

When the room spends too much money on the front end, you're going to get bargains like this floating around at the end of the day. Ellis and Brignac look like the biggest bargains here: guys who should start and get 500+ AB for under $3. Even if they don't perform optimally, these are great prices up the middle. Donald and Nix looked better before the Indians went out and signed Orlando Cabrera (this happened after this auction). Playing time for the Indians in the infield looks up in the air at second and third. Aviles should start over Getz in Kansas City, but since Aviles is better suited to play SS/3B, it wouldn't surprise me to see him as more of a supersub with Getz getting more AB at second base. Guillen is a bargain if healthy, but of course there's the rub. Sizemore is a decent hedge for this reason at $1. Izturis is a bargain at this price even if he only gets 250-300 AB this year. Ackley could be a long shot for value in 2011 or he could be up early. Time will tell.