I agree with Mike - the position by position breakdown seems to work better for everyone (and, frankly, seems to make more sense to me). So, here we go with the CBS Expert Analyst NL 5x5, starting with the catchers.
Top Dogs: Buster Posey ($29), Brian McCann ($25)
Buster Posey looks like a Stage 2 price…chase the youngster to a price he cannot hope to earn. Posey had a great rookie campaign; there is a lot to get excited about. On the flip side, there is a ceiling to his earnings, particularly in the National League West for a team in a so-so offensive park, and in a lineup that caught some lightning in a bottle last year. I would have a hard time justifying a bid more than $23-$24. McCann has earned in the $20s for four of the last five seasons; this bid is just slightly above my bid, but, given the CBS environment and position scarcity, this is a pretty good price in an improved lineup.
Tier Two: Miguel Montero ($17), Geovany Soto ($16)
Montero is now free to stand or fall on his own with no one looking over his shoulder. Montero has huge power potential, but the real question is what the average will look like. Can Montero earn this price? Possibly. Do you want to pay this much? No. Soto in 2010 seemed to prove that 2009 was an outlier. If Soto stays healthy, this $16 bid could look very, very good, as Soto was on-pace to shatter his 2008 numbers.
The Mid-Tier: Chris Iannetta ($11), Yadier Molina ($10), Carlos Ruiz ($10), Nick Hundley ($9), John Buck ($8)
Iannetta has been going the wrong way since 2008, dropping in playing time, slugging and the like. I think $11 is an optimistic bid in 5x5, though the attraction is the power potential. There are few catchers as consistent as Yadier Molina. His average and OBP dropped off a bit, but the home runs and RBIs should remain at levels from prior seasons. Carlos Ruiz is also pretty consistent, though on a level a bit below Molina. Ruiz had a career “average” year, and I think we can expect a return to prior values, in which case this bid is a bit over par. Hundley is also now out of his platoon situation and should get a full slate of at-bats. He earned $7 in each of the last two years in 4x4 in less than 300AB. You will get a nice dose of home runs, but expect a .230-.240 average. John Buck has the distinction of 7 pans in Rotoman’s magazine, including one from my blogging partner. That .335 BABIP contributed to the average rise, but it doesn’t seem sustainable. The Marlins like John Baker, so Buck could lose time when Baker is healthy.
Intriguing: Jonathan Lucroy ($6), Chris Snyder ($6), Josh Thole ($5), Jason Castro ($3).
LuCroy is going to get a chance to play. He doesn’t offer the same power potential as Kottaras does, but he is a lot younger and is pretty good at cutting down runners, so bank on the bulk of AB going here. He’ll likely earn that bid if the average is in the .250s-.260s. Snyder is now away from Montero, and finds himself ahead of a suddenly expendable Ryan Doumit. You are paying for double digit home runs, but he will tank your average; query how long the Pirates will live with a guy that hits .200. Thole is going to platoon with Ronny Paulino, and can generate a good bit of value in those platoon ABs. He has good plate discipline and makes excellent contact in the strike zone. Jason Castro doesn’t hit for much power and, really, doesn’t hit much. He’s worth a $1 flier, but $3 seems a bit off-base. Given his defense and ability to run a game, he’ll play, so watch your average.
The Crapshoot: Ramon Hernandez ($4), Ryan Hanigan ($3), Ryan Doumit ($3), Dioner Navarro ($2), Rod Barajas ($2), Devon Mesoraco ($1), Ronny Paulino ($1)
Hernandez and Hanigan will split time until Mesoraco is ready. Hernandez has the pop; Hanigan has the batting eye. Ultimately, Hernandez will out-earn Hanigan, who I think is worth a $1 bid, until Mesoraco comes up. Doumit has fallen out of favor with the Pirates, and only qualifies at catcher. On the flip side, if he gets 400 AB, this is a nice price. Navarro and Barajas are both average drags, but Barajas comes with more pop and more earning potential. Ronny Paulino is, well, Ronny Paulino; he won’t kill your average and will hit a couple of homers…not bad at $1 either.
The Nationals: Wilson Ramos ($2), Ivan Rodriguez ($2), Jesus Flores ($1), Derek Norris ($1)
The Nationals have quite the logjam at catcher. Pudge will not be easily displaced, but will need days off a plenty. Pudge won’t kill the average, but the power is about gone. Ramos should easily out-earn his $2 with 200-250 AB. Waiting in the wings is Ramos, and Norris is only a year away. The Nationals need to trade a catcher, but Flores is likely your best bet in this group.
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