2011 CBSSports.com A.L.-only Analysts Results: First Base

Last year, I pontificated that the prices in the CBS A.L.-only auction for first basemen were crazy. Owners were paying five-category dollars for four-category players, and I pointed out that there was no way that these players could earn it.

Of course in 2010 Miguel Cabrera went out and almost did justify his $40 CBS salary. And - being the reactive types that we Roto owners are - this was bound to happen.

THE STRATOSPHERE

Miguel Cabrera $48.

Wow. I called Cabrera out relatively early hoping to suck some money out of the room. I had no idea that this would be the result. Cabrera's 2010 was great...but his 38/126/3/111/.328 line was worth $38. How can he possibly earn $48? Using last year's formulas, he'd have to put up a 45/165/3/130/.350 line in 600 AB to get there. Is it impossible? No, but it is extremely improbable. And if Cabrera slips a little and earns $30 instead of $38, you've probably torpedoed your team with this bid.

THE NEXT, STILL EXPENSIVE TIER

Adrian Gonzalez $42, Adam Dunn $38, Mark Teixeira $38, Kevin Youkilis $35.

This group of first basemen was slightly cheaper than Cabrera but all four of them have the same problem that Cabrera does to a greater or lesser degree. Gonzalez is generating a great deal of excitement with his move from one of weaker hitting environments in the Majors to one of the best ones. However, his best case is still likely to equal what Cabrera did in 2010 without any speed, so I'd stay in the mid-to-high $30s here. Dunn is perhaps the most puzzling price of all here. He earned $24 in 2010 and at best is a batting average neutral player. He's never hit over .267 in a single season, and I don't expect him to do so this year either. Unlike Dunn, Teixeira could throw up a high BA season and push his earnings into the $30s. That doesn't mean he will, though, and he's been up and down in terms of his earnings over the last five years. I don't mind paying $30 for Teixeira and taking a slight loss, but anything over $33-34 and you almost definitely will lose money. In some league, Youkilis could represent a buying opportunity. His counting stats don't look his good due to time spent on the DL in 2010, but his OPS has been borderline spectacular three years running. He's an elite player even if he isn't quite an elite Roto player, and I wouldn't mind paying in the high $20s to own a piece of the Youk.

$25-30

Paul Konerko $30, Kendry Morales $30, Billy Butler $27, Justin Morneau $26.

I liked Konerko quite a bit last year at $16, but I don't like him at this price at all. I anticipated a bounce back because it was reported that Konerko was fully healthy last year for the first time since 2007, but he still was somewhat lucky with BABIP and very lucky with his HR/FB%. Even though he earned $31 last year, $25 seems like a more reasonable ceiling this year, and at Age 35, I wouldn't bet the ceiling. Morales should be OK if he's completely healthy, though he's a little expensive here. He's at an age where he should maintain his level of production. Even if the power never comes for Butler, I'd still bid in the mid-$20s for the batting average and the overall production and cross my fingers that a power spike is coming. He's still only 25 years old, though he's going to need to take a step forward against off-speed stuff if the power breakout is going to happen. Everyone in the draft chat room raved about Morneau's price all day. If there are no lingering effects from the concussion he suffered last year, then this is obviously a mild bargain...and a significant bargain compared to the prices for everyone else. Keep in mind, though, that predicting recovery for this type of injury is extremely difficult. Morneau should be fine, but that doesn't make it 100% that he will be.

THE MID-TIER

Derrek Lee $21, Michael Cuddyer $17, Justin Smoak $16.

Lee's bid seems a little high to me, but he was extremely productive from 2007-2009 and is moving to an extremely favorable home venue, particularly for home runs. I would bet on last year and hope that he bounces back to the mid-20s. Smoak looked terrific after returning from the minors in September, but beware small sample sizes. I think the power will be there for Smoak even in Safeco but the big question is what does his batting average look like. He has to hit .240 to be worth at least a $10 bid, and you're probably hoping for .270 if your bid is resting here. Cuddyer is one of the best bargains here relative to what he earned in 2009-2010. He earned $20 last year in a down power year, and even if he "only" earns $15 this year he still should be decent compared to some of the big ticket items listed above. If there's a 1B I'm sorry I didn't have a higher bid price on heading into the auction, it's Cuddyer.

THE REST OF THE STARTERS

Daric Barton $10, Matt LaPorta $9, Kila Ka'aihue $8, Mitch Moreland $7.

The cheap veterans from this price bracket last year have been replaced by a younger crop. Barton had a solid season last year for the A's. His skills won't necessarily translate into improved power as he matures, but his plate discipline and good eye could eventually lead to an improved BA and more RBI opportunities. He's a decent buy at this price, assuming the A's don't have ideas about moving Chris Carter to 1B. This could be LaPorta's make-or-break year in Cleveland. Since he was the prized prospect the Indians got for CC Sabathia, I'm sure they'll give him a full season, but his MLB track record thus far is very poor. Injuries might have a little something to do with that, but right now you're looking at a guy whose power isn't strong enough to support the poor BA or vice versa. Ka'aihue could be anything between an utter and complete flop and a .250 hitter with 20-25 HR power. He probably has a window in 2011 while the Royals flush farm system starts working their way toward the Majors this year. Moreland's minor league numbers were fairly unimpressive in AAA, but it seemed like he hit nothing but ropes when he reached Arlington and he certainly hit his share of HR. He should get most of the AB at 1B, though it remains to be seen if Mike Napoli winds up spelling him at 1B from time to time to keep his bat in the line-up on off days.

THE CRAPSHOOT

Russ Branyan $1, Chris Davis $1, Casey Kotchman $1.

There's a decent possibility that none of these players will be in the Majors on Opening Day. Branyan is unsigned as I write this, Davis will probably start in AAA, and Dan Johnson probably has the inside track over Kotchman for the 1B job in Tampa.