Last year I alternated between analyzing the CBSSports.com auction results by Rotisserie team (for the National League) and by position (for the American League). The positional format proved to be much more popular, so I've decided to use this format again this year.
This year, the market for American League catchers was relatively tepid compared to last year. Some of the prices were moderately out of line, but the market avoided paying mega-bucks for a top-tier catcher like they did last season.
THE ELITES
Joe Mauer $31. Victor Martinez $25.
After going for $45 last year, Mauer's price was far more sensible at this year's auction. He could earn this, though the power will have to return in order for that to definitively happen. Mauer is worth paying a couple of bucks more for because of the position; how much higher you want to go then the high $20s probably depends upon your league and how much position scarcity plays a factor. Outside of an injury riddled 2008, V-Mart has been a pretty darned consistent Roto hitter the last five years. He's at an age (32) where he should be OK for another year or two with the bat even if the Tigers do just leave him behind the plate. I do wonder how much he'll DH; it seems to me that the Tigers offense will suffer a lot more than their defense on the days that Martinez isn't behind the dish.
THE NEXT TIER
Jorge Posada $19, Kurt Suzuki $19, Carlos Santana $19, Mike Napoli $17, Matt Wieters $16.
Here's an eclectic group of players. All of the $19 catchers here came up late and their prices were pushed by a catcher-hungry market. Posada was the most extreme example, as he was the last semi-decent option on the board and his price kept soaring. He isn't enough of a hitter to be the full-time DH and I don't think he'd hold up as a catcher all season long even if Russell Martin weren't on board. Even accounting for position, I wouldn't push him past $11-12, and that might be generous. Suzuki was a disappointment last year, but he still hit 13 HR and drove in 71 in an off year. If the average jumps even a little bit, Suzuki will be a productive $14-16 guy. Santana's bid assumes full health, but what makes me more nervous than his health is his poor batting line against LHP last year (albeit a very small sample size). A quasi-platoon with Lou Marson - at least in the early going as Santana gets his legs under him - wouldn't surprise me in the least. Many are drooling over the idea of Napoli playing half his games in Arlington. I'm excited, too, but keep in mind that he hasn't hit lefties the last two years and his defense still isn't anything to write home about. He could put up a monster year...but he could also hit .230. This bid seems to take both of these possibilities into account. Wieters struggled mightily last year, so this bid is based far more on potential and ability then anything in the numbers. I still have faith in Wieters long term, but in a one-and-done league wouldn't pay this price.
STILL IN DOUBLE DIGITS.
A.J. Pierzynski $12, J.P. Arencibia $10, Russell Martin $10.
Pierzynski is as boring as milk, but that's one of the reasons why you might go $1 or $2 higher than you otherwise would. He's getting to an age where I'm a little worried about a sudden decline, and I have to admit that I dropped my bid a little bit as a result. His LD% and HR/FB% dropped last year, and while that might be statistical noise, I'm still a little nervous. Arencibia's upside is as a poor-man's Napoli. He mashed AAA pitching at Vegas last year in his second go 'round in the league. He was terrible in the Majors, and there's always the risk that he doesn't cut it and gets sent down. The risk is probably a better one to take at half this price. Martin is a wait-until-Spring-Training guy, but then that's what makes these early February auctions challenging. His hip still isn't quite 100%, and even when he has been on the field the last two years he hasn't been all that productive. Maybe the surgery will turn him back into a $15-20 player. I wouldn't quite bet this to find out.
(MOST OF) THE OTHER STARTERS
Jarrod Saltalamacchia $7, John Jaso $6, Miguel Olivo $6, Alex Avila $4, Kelly Shoppach $4.
Salty's had so many disappointing years that it's easy to forget that he's going to play most of this season as a 26-year-old. If he merely posts his career line thus far over 450 AB, that's good for a 13/53/0/.248 line, or $12 worth of earnings. I'm not advising paying $12 for Salty but don't write him off yet either if he is indeed the starter. Jaso is an atypical A.L. catcher: he doesn't offer much in the way of power but is a great on-base guy and likely a more productive starter in real life, unless your league uses OBP. This is probably a safe pick but there's also little upside here. Olivo is yet another (stop me if you've heard this one already) high power/low BA guy behind the plate in the A.L. His plate discipline is atrocious, and if you own him you had better be ready to live with some long stretches were he does nothing but whiff and walk back to the bench. This price looks great based on past earnings, but Safeco will almost definitely suppress his power. Avila's value depends on how much or how little V-Mart plays behind the plate (discussed above). The power is intriguing, but the bad batting average potential plus the presence of Martinez means that Avila will disappear if he doesn't get somewhat better in '11. Shoppach will probably work his way into a platoon with Jaso. He's got a decent amount of pop and if used correctly by the Rays, he won't be too much of a BA killer. I like him at $3.
THE CRAPSHOOT
Yorvit Torrealba $3, Hank Conger $2, Jason Kendall $2, Jeff Mathis $1, Jose Molina $1, Jesus Montero $1, Adam Moore $1, Brayan Pena $1, Jason Varitek $1.
This is where the room either ran out of money and/or was merely trying to fill a slot with something...anything. Torrealba could be one of those defensive catchers who gets 300-350 AB and earns close to double-digits, like he did last year, but $3 is too much. Kendall's health reports are starting to sound optimistic and he could be back in May, making Pena less of a sleeper than he seemed a month ago. Molina, Moore and Varitek are all back-up options who are only worth it in deep leagues only...and probably only valuable if they don't get overexposed with regular duty. Conger and Montero are the cheap fliers worth taking in one-and-done leagues. If they don't play this year, no biggie, but taking a flier on a $1-2 lottery ticket at catcher isn't a terrible idea...you can always pick up a scrub later if they don't work out.
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