Toz plans to write something about the CBS Sports A.L. expert auction he participated in back in early February, but it's early March and I don't want the American League to get completely overlooked on the blog. Tonight, I thought I'd take a look at the catchers.
CREAM OF THE CROP
Joe Mauer $45, Victor Martinez $30.
At $45, I could have put Mauer into a different category all together (demigod?), but both catchers fit the mold of elites at these prices. I like both of them, but feel like there's too much risk at a demanding position at these prices, particularly for Mauer. He put up a line of 28/96/4/94/.365 and earned $36 in 4x4/$32 in 5x5. He's 27 in baseball age, so maybe he can earn a little more, but there's a ceiling on players who don't run. I understand why he went for $45: the owners bidding on him had a draft mentality, where they were thinking that since the drop-off from Mauer to the next clump of catchers is dramatic that they should overbid. In an auction league with fixed budgets, this is a mistake. Martinez's price isn't quite so out of line, but even using the more generous 4x4 values, he's never earned more than $26. He's less of a reach, but this is still a scarcity buy.
THE NEXT BEST THING
Matt Wieters $21.
I like Wieters a good deal long-term, but this price is assuming a ton of upside for a 24-year-old catcher who earned $9 last year in more than half a season. His Pitch Type Values over at Fangraphs confirm that Wieters could hit the fastball but struggled with everything offspeed. He's talented enough to make the adjustments, but that doesn't mean he's going to come out of the gate slugging. Keep in mind that V-Mart earned $23 in 5x5 last year. To ask Wieters to earn that in his first full season is asking a hell of a lot.
THE STEADY VETS
Kurt Suzuki $16, Mike Napoli $14, Jorge Posada $13, A.J. Pierzynski $11.
Suzuki hasn't been given a lot of love in some circles - and might be a little expensive here - but was a steady, reliable option last year...and the first catcher on this list to earn more than what he was paid. Napoli offers an outside chance at 30 HR, but is still going to sit occasionally if Mike Scioscia wants Jeff Mathis' defense more than he wants Napoli's bat. Speaking of sitting, there has been plenty of speculation circulating around how much Posada will play (or sit) and how much Francisco Cervelli will play/sit. Posada's getting up there in years, but is signed to a fat contract and will play when healthy/able. Pierzynski at $11 seems expensive, but a look at the numbers/earnings says that this is more or less par for what A.J. can do. He might be replaced by Tyler Flowers at some point during the season, but it's more likely he'll be behind the dish for the ChiSox all season long.
PLATOONS AND OFF-YEARS
Gerald Laird $6, Carlos Santana $5, Alex Avila $4, Kelly Shoppach $4, Dioner Navarro $4, Jarrod Saltalamacchia $4.
Laird and Avila went for a combined $10...and not to the same team in the auction either. I like Avila a little bit better at $4 than I do Laird at $6, especially if Laird might split the job with Avila. Laird needs to play all year to earn it at this price, while Avila has enough pop that he might be OK if he gets 50% of the job. Navarro and Shoppach are going to be in some kind of quasi-platoon in Tampa. I like Shoppach more because of the pop, but Navarro had an incredibly unlucky BABIP season in '09 and could sneakily bounce back. Santana went for more than probable Opening Day starter Lou Marson. Given that Wieters went for double-digits last year, this price looks like a potential steal if Santana's up by June. It only feels like Saltalamacchia has been around for ever, but he'll be playing his Age 25 season this year. If he's healthy, he could be a decent post-hype sleeper, but health seems like a question at the moment.
THE CRAPSHOOT
Rod Barajas $3, Adam Moore $3, Lou Marson $3, Taylor Teagarden $3, John Buck $3, Rob Johnson $2, Brayan Pena $1, Jason Varitek $1, Landon Powell $1, Jeff Mathis $1, Jason Kendall $1, Tyler Flowers $1.
Barajas was purchased while he was still a free agent, so his owner had to drop him. A lot of owners expressed their preferences at catcher, making grabbing a $1 starter next to impossible. Kendall's the only one who snuck through; everyone else went for at least $2...or $3 if Johnson winds up on the bench. None of this prices leap out at me. Moore could be the biggest bargain here if he pans out, though Kendall is the kind of boring, move-the-chains guy I like at $1, though he's no longer the safe BA guy he once was. It's hard to pick a loser in this bracket, but Teagarden might wind up back in AAA (he has an option left) and Marson will look silly if Santana forces the Tribe's hand in May as opposed to late June.
3 comments:
Hooray! Mike's blogging about the American League again! Ha ha. You mentioned last Thursday that your NL auction results didn't seem to be generating much interest. I happen to play in three AL-only leagues and no mixed or NL-only leagues. I wonder about the rest of your readers...
I devoured every word you wrote last Spring, and it definitely helped me prepare for my auctions, but this year, the NL recap hasn't been all that useful to me. I do appreciate the insights, but I've been anxious for you (or Toz) to talk about AL players, so keep it coming! Thanks!
Frank, due to a scheduling conflict on my end, Toz and I flopped leagues this year.
Mauer and Laird seem the most over-priced to me...Weiters, too, but I could understand it if it was a keeper league. I wonder if the move to Toronto could help John Buck.
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