One of the things I love about Rotisserie baseball is the same thing I love about real baseball: its lack of predictability. In the National League, outfields are a happy home for such chaos.
Top 10 Ten N.L. Outfielders 2010
# | Player | $ | Sal | +/- | PK | ZIPS | '09 |
1 | Carlos Gonzalez | $45 | $21 | +24 | $20 | $21 | $16 |
2 | Ryan Braun | $33 | $41 | -8 | $38 | $36 | $40 |
3 | Matt Holliday | $32 | $34 | -1 | $34 | $34 | $30 |
4 | Jayson Werth | $30 | $27 | +3 | $23 | $23 | $31 |
5 | Angel Pagan | $30 | $3 | +27 | $8 | $13 | $16 |
6 | Chris Young | $29 | $12 | +17 | $13 | $17 | $9 |
7 | Andrew McCutchen | $29 | $24 | +5 | $23 | $29 | $22 |
8 | Hunter Pence | $29 | $25 | +4 | $25 | $24 | $24 |
9 | Corey Hart | $28 | $18 | +10 | $15 | $20 | $14 |
10 | Drew Stubbs | $27 | $14 | +13 | $15 | $17 | $9 |
Average | $31 | $22 | +9 | $21 | $23 | $21 |
Braun and Werth are the only outfielders that repeat from last year's list. There wasn't anyone from last year's crop who fell down the rabbit hole, so this is more a matter of some young and exciting options breaking through and re-shaping the list.
This is where you're looking for bold calls from your favorite tout or pricing system. From this standpoint, Rotoman has to get credit for Pagan at $8, while ZIPS certainly has to get credit for its aggressive price on McCutchen at $29 and Young at $17. The market had been spending aggressively until now, so I'm not that surprised that they seem to be a little cautious here.
Or are they?
Ten Most Expensive N.L. Outfielders 2010
# | Player | $ | Sal | +/- | PK | ZIPS | '09 |
1 | Ryan Braun | $33 | $41 | -8 | $38 | $36 | $40 |
2 | Matt Kemp | $24 | $39 | -15 | $38 | $34 | $37 |
3 | Justin Upton | $22 | $34 | -12 | $28 | $25 | $30 |
4 | Matt Holliday | $32 | $34 | -1 | $34 | $34 | $30 |
5 | Andre Ethier | $22 | $28 | -6 | $25 | $24 | $25 |
6 | Jason Bay | $12 | $28 | -16 | $24 | $27 | $26 |
7 | Jayson Werth | $30 | $27 | +3 | $23 | $23 | $31 |
8 | Carlos Lee | $17 | $26 | -9 | $27 | $25 | $26 |
9 | Hunter Pence | $29 | $25 | +4 | $25 | $24 | $24 |
10 | Adam Dunn | $24 | $24 | 0 | $22 | $24 | $24 |
Average | $25 | $31 | -6 | $28 | $28 | $29 |
Nope, they're still out in front a good deal. The only player Rotoman gets outright here is Lee, while the best ZIPS can do is tie on Dunn and Holliday.
The market's aggressive and - unlike in the A.L. - this is a pretty good place to be aggressive. Bay and Kemp are the only double-digit losers here, and if you bought Kemp at least you got $20+ worth of stats out of the bargain. As usual, I don't recommend taking a $6 loss per player, but you have to get stats, and you're not going to get $25 of stats per player anywhere across the diamond.
Still, given how much money has been thrown around across the board, I would still feel comfortable recommending a Stage Three, middle-of-the-road approach.
Next Ten Most Expensive (11-20) N.L. Outfielders 2010
# | Player | $ | Sal | +/- | PK | ZIPS | '09 |
11 | Andrew McCutchen | $29 | $24 | +5 | $23 | $29 | $22 |
12 | Shane Victorino | $27 | $24 | +2 | $24 | $26 | $26 |
13 | Manny Ramirez | $10 | $23 | -12 | $24 | $24 | $16 |
14 | Nate McLouth | $3 | $22 | -19 | $21 | $22 | $22 |
15 | Carlos Gonzalez | $45 | $21 | +24 | $20 | $21 | $16 |
16 | Michael Bourn | $26 | $21 | +5 | $16 | $19 | $33 |
17 | Jay Bruce | $22 | $21 | +1 | $20 | $17 | $11 |
18 | Nyjer Morgan | $16 | $21 | -5 | $19 | $22 | $27 |
19 | Raul Ibanez | $19 | $19 | 0 | $16 | $23 | $25 |
20 | Ryan Ludwick | $13 | $19 | -6 | $15 | $23 | $19 |
Average | $21 | $22 | -1 | $20 | $23 | $22 |
The challenge here is trying to avoid the absolute bombs like McLouth. If you bought McLouth and Gonzalez, it was barely worth your while.
But for the most part, aren't these the guys that you want? McCutchen, Victorino, Bourn...these players are profit centers. Assuming a $180 offense (because that's where the market seems to be headed), if you had bought these three OF, you got 46% of your production ($82) for 38% of your dollars ($69). A $13 profit on three players sounds like a yawner, but it's the kind of stuff that you need to do to win.
The next grouping isn't quite as dynamic.
Next Ten Most Expensive (21-30) N.L. Outfielders 2010
# | Player | $ | Sal | +/- | PK | ZIPS | '09 |
21 | Alfonso Soriano | $18 | $18 | 0 | $21 | $21 | $14 |
22 | Brad Hawpe | $7 | $18 | -12 | $18 | $21 | $21 |
23 | Carlos Beltran | $6 | $18 | -12 | $23 | $26 | $18 |
24 | Corey Hart | $28 | $18 | +10 | $15 | $20 | $14 |
25 | Chris Coghlan | $12 | $16 | -4 | $17 | $22 | $21 |
26 | Dexter Fowler | $13 | $16 | -3 | $17 | $15 | $17 |
27 | Kyle Blanks | $0 | $16 | -16 | $14 | $13 | $6 |
28 | Colby Rasmus | $23 | $15 | +7 | $16 | $17 | $12 |
29 | Garrett Jones | $17 | $15 | +2 | $16 | $24 | $17 |
30 | Chase Headley | $19 | $14 | +4 | $17 | $13 | $15 |
Average | $14 | $16 | -2 | $17 | $19 | $16 |
Hart and Rasmus save these guys. Taking a double-digit loss on Kemp but getting stats back is one thing. Pouring $18 into Hawpe or Beltran is quite another...and dumping $16 on Blanks to get nothing back is downright awful.
The hitters are different, but the results from 2009 and 2010 are eerily similar.
2009-2010 N.L. OF by Tier
Year | Tier | $ | Sal | +/- | Prior Year | ||
2009 | 1 (1-10) | $25 | $31 | -6 | $29 | ||
2010 | 1 (1-10) | $24 | $32 | -8 | $31 | ||
2009 | 2 (11-20) | $21 | $22 | -1 | $22 | ||
2010 | 2 (11-20) | $20 | $21 | -1 | $21 | ||
2009 | 3 (21-30) | $14 | $16 | -2 | $16 | ||
2010 | 3 (21-30) | $12 | $14 | -2 | $19 |
The names change year over year, but that $19-24 range in Tier #2 looks like the sweet spot.
Notice how the market insists on giving the top guys a raise. This trend is consistent with all of the most expensive players from position to position. As a general rule, if you can buy a player for what he earned the year before (or, better yet, less) try to do so. Throughout this series, grouping after grouping of players who have picked up raises have not only failed to earn what they were paid but couldn't even match what they earned the prior year.
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