Ten Most Expensive A.L. Outfielders 2010
# | Player | $ | Sal | +/- | PK | ZIPS | 2009 |
1 | Jacoby Ellsbury | $2 | $35 | -34 | $33 | $32 | $36 |
2 | Carl Crawford | $40 | $34 | +6 | $34 | $32 | $36 |
3 | B.J. Upton | $25 | $30 | -5 | $26 | $25 | $19 |
4 | Grady Sizemore | $2 | $29 | -28 | $26 | $25 | $15 |
5 | Adam Lind | $12 | $28 | -15 | $23 | $23 | $27 |
6 | Nelson Cruz | $27 | $28 | -1 | $19 | $25 | $22 |
7 | Ichiro Suzuki | $31 | $27 | +3 | $32 | $27 | $31 |
8 | Nick Markakis | $21 | $26 | -5 | $27 | $28 | $22 |
9 | Curtis Granderson | $19 | $26 | -7 | $25 | $23 | $20 |
10 | Shin-Soo Choo | $30 | $26 | +4 | $26 | $21 | $26 |
Average | $21 | $29 | -8 | $27 | $26 | $25 |
Unlike 2009, when six of the 10 most expensive hitters lost $10 or more, here the losses are mostly represented by Ellsbury and Sizemore, with a little dash of Lind tossed in for good measure.
The market spends $4 less per player here, but these guys aren't nearly as good as they were in 2009. Bay and Holliday flee to the National League, and no one on the list above comes from the other league to take their places. Rotoman gives these guys an even more conservative $2 raise per player, while ZIPS is even more reticent. As a whole, ZIPS comes closest to being correct.
I hadn't thought about scoring the market, Rotoman and ZIPS this way until now.
Ten Most Expensive A.L. Players by Position, 2010
POS | $ | Sal | +/- | PK | ZIPS | 2009 | |
C | $11 | $16 | -5 | $13 | $13 | $14 | |
1B | $18 | $25 | -8 | $22 | $22 | $21 | |
2B | $15 | $23 | -8 | $21 | $20 | $21 | |
SS | $15 | $18 | -3 | $16 | $19 | $20 | |
3B | $16 | $22 | -6 | $19 | $20 | $15 | |
OF1 | $21 | $29 | -8 | $27 | $26 | $25 |
The lowest price "wins" on these groups of 10 players (i.e. comes closest to their actual value) every time. So if you want to give a point to the market (Sal), Rotoman (PK), ZIPS and 2009, then ZIPS would get 2 1/2 points, 2009 two points, and Rotoman 1 1/2 points. The market pushes every one of these groups of players except the shortstops past what they earned in 2009 and gets severely burned.
I've been talking throughout this series about how Rotoman might not like some of these players but he had better spend his money. But I've been wrong, haven't I? As a pricer, all Rotoman needs to do is make sure his bids add up to $3,120. If he catches up on some of the second tier guys, he should be OK.
Next 10 Most Expensive (11-20) A.L. Outfielders 2010
# | Player | $ | Sal | +/- | PK | ZIPS | 2009 |
11 | Bobby Abreu | $24 | $24 | 0 | $24 | $25 | $28 |
12 | Adam Jones | $21 | $23 | -2 | $21 | $24 | $18 |
13 | Torii Hunter | $24 | $23 | +1 | $23 | $22 | $24 |
14 | Denard Span | $19 | $22 | -3 | $25 | $23 | $25 |
15 | Jason Kubel | $16 | $22 | -6 | $20 | $18 | $22 |
16 | Julio Borbon | $14 | $22 | -8 | $18 | $26 | $11 |
17 | Carlos Quentin | $17 | $22 | -4 | $19 | $16 | $10 |
18 | Alex Rios | $32 | $21 | +11 | $23 | $24 | $16 |
19 | Michael Cuddyer | $20 | $20 | 0 | $16 | $19 | $22 |
20 | Juan Pierre | $33 | $19 | +14 | $17 | $22 | $20 |
Average | $22 | $22 | 0 | $21 | $22 | $20 |
Not only does Rotoman start spending his money, but he's really pushing hard for the speed guys. He ties the market on Crawford and Choo in the most expensive tier and wins on Markakis (ouch) and Ichiro (nice). Here he beats the market on Rios and Span and ties on Abreu and Hunter.
And this looks like a great place to spend your money. The second most expensive group of OF beats the most expensive group in earnings by $1 per player while costing $7 per player less. Perhaps more vital to our cause is that there isn't an absolute clunker on the list like Sizemore or Ellsbury. Borbon is the biggest disappointment here, but with $14 in earnings at least he gives you something back.
ZIPS is white hot here. Forgetting about the fact that they don't have to adhere to a budget, their recommendations for Kubel and Quentin look great on the pessimistic side while their Rios and Pierre calls looks great on the positive side. Too bad they were so sunny about Borbon.
What you obviously hope for in early April is that in early October you have at least one of the outfielders on this list.
Top 10 A.L. Outfielders 2010
# | Player | $ | Sal | +/- | PK | ZIPS | 2009 |
1 | Carl Crawford | $40 | $34 | +6 | $34 | $32 | $36 |
2 | Josh Hamilton | $38 | $18 | +20 | $15 | $19 | $11 |
3 | Jose Bautista | $34 | $4 | +30 | $5 | $11 | $7 |
4 | Juan Pierre | $33 | $19 | +14 | $17 | $22 | $20 |
5 | Alex Rios | $32 | $21 | +11 | $23 | $24 | $16 |
6 | Ichiro Suzuki | $31 | $27 | +3 | $32 | $27 | $31 |
7 | Shin-Soo Choo | $30 | $26 | +4 | $26 | $21 | $26 |
8 | Brett Gardner | $27 | $13 | +15 | $14 | $16 | $13 |
9 | Rajai Davis | $27 | $18 | +9 | $14 | $19 | $22 |
10 | Nelson Cruz | $27 | $28 | -1 | $19 | $25 | $22 |
Average | $32 | $21 | +11 | $19 | $22 | $20 |
Six of the 10 best American League outfielders are also 20 of the most expensive outfielders in the A.L. last year. This might make these players sound predictable, but they're a little less predictable than they were in 2009 (when they cost $23 per player). Rotoman picked some of the wrong speed guys to bet the house on, but he had the right idea. Speed gets the short shrift in 5x5, and it particularly gets blown off in the American League.
Bautista is the lowest paid guy we have seen on this chart in three years. He was moving from a part-time role to a full-time role, but the market couldn't even see fit to pay him what he earned in 2009.
But many of the other players here got raises from what they earned in 2009, with the hopes of a bounce back. Since this is a chart of the best players, obviously there are a lot of happy stories here. Surprisingly, the next table has a lot of positive returns as well.
Next 10 Most Expensive (21-30) A.L. Outfielders 2010
# | Player | $ | Sal | +/- | PK | ZIPS | 2009 |
21 | Rajai Davis | $27 | $18 | +9 | $14 | $19 | $23 |
22 | Franklin Gutierrez | $17 | $18 | -0 | $17 | $15 | $21 |
23 | Josh Hamilton | $38 | $18 | +20 | $15 | $19 | $11 |
24 | Vernon Wells | $24 | $17 | +7 | $16 | $17 | $17 |
25 | Nolan Reimold | $1 | $15 | -15 | $18 | $16 | $13 |
26 | Nick Swisher | $25 | $15 | +10 | $12 | $17 | $15 |
27 | Johnny Damon | $16 | $14 | +2 | $19 | $21 | $23 |
28 | Juan Rivera | $11 | $14 | -2 | $12 | $14 | $19 |
29 | J.D. Drew | $16 | $13 | +3 | $13 | $15 | $17 |
30 | Mike Cameron | $4 | $13 | -10 | $11 | $16 | $17 |
Average | $18 | $15 | +3 | $15 | $17 | $18 |
Cameron and Reimold are big busts here, but Hamilton and Swisher more than make up for that. Six hitters here turn a profit, and Davis, Hamilton and Swisher all bring back double digit profits.
And the group as a whole brings in a profit. This is where your savvy Stage Three buyers should be cleaning up (assuming your league is similar to the market and spends big on the top guys). Sit back, wait for the top hitters to jump off the board, and then buy, buy, buy in the middle rounds. You are still going to spend your money (if you spend $180 on your offense, this means that $15-20 outfielders will still cost more than the $12.86 per player a $180 offense would cost).
I'm probably going to do a separate DH write-up this year, but since I'm mostly done with last year's hitter recap, it appears to me that Stage Three conservatism was the way to go in the A.L. last year, and probably still will be going forward. The market is paying big bucks for the top hitters, but you would be better served avoiding that strategy and waiting for the bargains or value plays in the middle.
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