NL Free Agent Supplemental - John Ely

Gypsy Soul posed the question:

Hey Mike, how goes it? Just wondering what your thoughts might be on picking up John Ely? 

Would you drop Tim Hudson for him if Ks and Ws are weak? Thanks much.

John Ely is a C prospect who has had a decent minor league career before being called up to the majors by the Dodgers. While Ely boasts a decent arm, he is more of a finesse pitcher. While he struggled at high A ball in 2008, he did a very nice job at AA. Note, however, that his strikeout rate dropped and his walk rate went up as he faced tougher hitters.

The meat and bones of the question is really: what to do with Tim Hudson? Hudson is clearly not all the way back. His K rate is way down, and the BB rate is up significantly. He is accomplishing his 2.64 ERA with a .234 BABIP, a 13.4 LD%, and a 3.24 GB/FB rate. I'm not sure any of those numbers are sustainable, as evidenced by the 4.85 FIP.

Ultimately, Gypsy, I think it may be time to cut bait with Tim Hudson, particularly if you are locked in a tight race. While I think Ely's strikeouts are an illusion, he seems to be a better option at this point in time.