Toz responded to Gypsy Soul's question on John Ely and Tim Hudson. I thought I'd add my two cents as well.
While Ely's raw numbers were impressive at AA last year, his FIP was an OK 3.68. The MLE of his FIP was 5.05. Dodger Stadium will help Ely minimize some of the damage during his home starts, but as Toz points out Ely is not going to blow people away.
I agree with Toz that Hudson's low strikeout rate is a concern and that at some point he is going to have an ERA spike. However, Hudson has outpitched his FIP throughout most of his career, primarily because he's a severe ground ball pitcher with a career 2.58 G/F ratio. This year is no exception; Hudson has put up a 3.24 G/F. Batters simply aren't getting any lift on his pitches. Right-handed batters, in particular, aren't generating any power against Hudson and have a .302 SLG against to date.
I would be far more concerned with Hudson if his velocity were down this year. Instead, it's up slightly and the highest it has been since 2004. The law of averages will work for Hudson here, too; if the velocity is still there, Hudson's whiff rate eventually will climb somewhat. He hasn't been a strikeout pitcher since very early in his career, but I think Hudson will eventually whiff a batter or two more per inning if the velocity holds.
There is absolutely no way I would drop Hudson in favor of Ely on the basis of three Ely starts. While I don't expect Hudson to continue posting a sub-3 ERA, he is one of those pitchers who have always been above Major League average without being a big whiff guy. I have more faith in Hudson than Ely going forward, simply because Hudson has a track record and Ely doesn't.
Even if you're wavering on Hudson, his track record and name recognition make him a more attractive trade than a non-pedigree prospect like Ely. Barring injury, Hudson is going to start all year for the Braves, even if he goes through a rough patch. The same cannot be said for Ely. If you sour on Hudson (or have already soured on him), you can get something back in trade. If Ely has a stretch of bad starts, his trade value will disappear entirely and you'll be left holding the bag.
4 comments:
While I agree that Hudson may be a better trade bait than Eli, the fact of the matter is that Hudson's K rate is down precipitously from his normal K rate, in addition to the previously mentioned numbers. While Ely may not be the guy you want to replace Hudson with, Hudson appears to be be in place for a big correction.
thanks to both of you for your insightful and thoughtful analyses, it is always most welcome.
a reality check today by hudson with a significant increase in Ks.
Gypsy - I don't know if you noticed, but so far this year, just about every player I have written about has done exactly the opposite of my recommendation. From here on out, I suggest all of our readers take my analysis and do exactly to the contrary!
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