Mike Gonzalez and the Orioles Bullpen

I know, I know. I've already spilled more (virtual) ink on the Orioles bullpen than would seem humanly possible, and here I am with yet another column on this topic.

So far this season, I've written about Alfredo Simon, Koji Uehara, Kam Mickolio and Will Ohman. Readers are surely bracing themselves for next week's exciting Cla Meredith installment!

At some point, Mike Gonzalez is going to be back. And at some point - given the $6MM he's getting per season to close - Gonzalez will be the man in the 9th for the Orioles. We're all starting to wonder, though, when that point is. The latest news is that he isn't close to throwing off a mound and that early June is the new timetable.

No one has asked me for advice on this situation, but there are a few general points always worth remembering:

1. Expect the worst when it comes to Gonzalez. If the reports right now are saying early June, project in your mind that he'll be back in mid-July.
2. Adjust your save projections accordingly. If this means you should either trade for a closer or simply toss the category overboard now, then do it sooner rather than later. If Gonzalez does come back in early June, you'll be pleasantly surprised and can make a positive adjustment.
3. Don't get too jazzed about any of his replacements. The fact that the A.L. league I track has placed aggressive bids on both Simon and Uehara reinforces the idea that either one could take the job (or a piece of the job) at some point.

If you don't own Gonzalez, don't trade for him unless you can get him at a bargain basement price. Some owners might disagree with this premise and think it's worth rolling the dice, especially if they're middle-of-the-pack but want to get lucky and contend this year. But if you wouldn't roll the dice in April by paying full sticker price for an injured player then, why would you do it now via trade?

Whatever your discount for Gonzalez is in your head, decrease that by another 15-25%. If Gonzalez's owner is still willing to trade him at this point, then and only then should you consider it.