Monday, May 17, 2010

A.L. FAAB Log: May 17, 2010

Derek Holland $29. Other bids $26, $18, $6, $2.
I wrote about Holland a couple of times last year and in terms of Holland's upside, not much has changed. He was sent down to AAA to start the season and dominated at Oklahoma City before finally getting the call and putting up a dominant start against the A's last week. Holland gets two starts at home this week against the Angels and the Cubs. If you believe in Holland, you're going to have to bid aggressively, as you can see. Enough people will remember his pedigree and potential, look at this year's numbers, and think breakout.

Hank Blalock $26. Other bids $12, $11, $10, $8, $7, $1.
I wrote up Blalock earlier today. Power or no, this is a lot to bid for what is going to amount to either a platoon player or a batting average drain if he plays every day. UPDATE (10 a.m., 5/17) This comment has been changed due to an error I made in the linked article.

Corey Patterson $23. Other bids $12, $9, $8.
In terms of playing time, Patterson must be picked up in the short-term in A.L.-only leagues. In terms of value, I'm very skeptical that Patterson will have more than a marginal amount. Steals were what used to give Patterson a good deal of value, but his 3/3 SB/CS rate at AAA makes me wonder if the speed isn't disappearing. Like I said, bid on Patterson, but recognize that he isn't any kind of solution for you or the Orioles.

Daniel Worth $8. Other bid $2.
It wasn't a surprise to see Scott Sizemore sent down, but Worth's promotion did throw Tigers followers for a loop. Worth is a non-prospect: organizational filler whose versatility gives him value but who shouldn't be expected to start for any team for very long. He had a 658 minor league OPS entering 2010 and was mirroring that so far this year. Worth did have an uncharacteristic 10-for-11 SB/CS rate at AAA, so it's worth watching to see if he'll run. He's expected to split time at 2B with Don Kelly and Ramon Santiago until Carlos Guillen is ready so he's worth a shot if you're desperate for SB.

Armando Galarraga $7.
Once again, Galarraga rose like a phoenix from the ashes of the minors to post an inexplicably solid start, today against Boston. There's a vacuum in Detroit's rotation right now. Galarraga could rush into it, but given his age, prior track record, and less than stellar stuff, I wouldn't run out to buy him. He could be OK spotted in match-ups, but I still have next to no faith in the long term.


Chris Ray $5.
Ray has put up a pretty ERA/WHIP thus far, but his K/BB and K/IP leave a lot to be desired. Ray has been OK this year, but is buried deep in the Rangers bullpen and not worth a FAAB bid at this time.

Juan Miranda $4. Other bid $1.
Miranda has a moderate window of opportunity for the Yankees while Nick Johnson is on the DL, but doesn't fit the profile of a player I'd expect to succeed in New York. He's a three true outcomes hitter who doesn't hit enough HR to really benefit a team unless he's spotted correctly. Miranda would be a better FAAB bet if he were in a weaker organization.

Mike Sweeney $2. Other bid $1.
Sweeney hadn't been playing much for the Mariners, but a string of back-to-back-to-back HR games means that he should start to see more AB in the short term for the M's. All of the usual caveats surrounding Sweeney apply, but he's not a bad guy to grab and see if you can't catch lightning in a bottle. The Mariners need to play all of the hot bats that they can find.

Trevor Crowe $2.
Crowe was really lousy in AAA, but Grady Sizemore's knee contusion today means that Crowe could get lucky and snag some opportunities in CF and possibly land a more significant role if Sizemore hits the D.L. That being said, Crowe has never done much to move the chains and even if Sizemore is out still isn't a guy I'd necessarily target with a big bid.

Randy Ruiz $1.
With Lyle Overbay tanking early, many called for Ruiz to take his place. Ruiz wound up putting up even worse numbers than Overbay and even if there weren't concerns about his defense, his bat didn't exactly force Cito to make a change. Ruiz is the kind of player who is worthless if he isn't hitting, so I wouldn't be surprised to see him cut entirely if he doesn't turn it around soon.

Landon Powell $1.
With Kurt Suzuki back, Powell goes back to being a back-up. There are worse options out there - Powell can pop the occasional dinger - but Powell is worth next to nothing even in traditional Roto.

Alexi Casilla $1.
With J.J. Hardy on the DL, Casilla is picking up some more AB, but he still offers next to nothing with the bat and isn't even running so far this year. Casilla's still not old at 25, but he's close to becoming a career back-up and nothing more.

Adam Rosales. Claimed by 10th, 8th and 6th place teams.
Rosales continues to fill in ably if not spectacularly for the injured Mark Ellis. He'll drive in some runs, won't kill your batting average, but isn't anything more than an A.L.-only fill-in you'd gladly upgrade if you could.

David Robertson. Claimed by 9th place team.
Robertson's overall numbers are awful, but he hasn't been scored upon in his last four outings. Control is still a big issue for this strikeout pitcher, so you'll still want to pass unless you can take a WHIP hit on this middle reliever.

Ramon Santiago. Claimed by 5th and 3rd place teams.
As mentioned above, Santiago should get a little more playing time with Scott Sizemore down in AAA for the time being. Santiago is a fine utility infielder for the Tigers but offers very little Roto value at all.

Mitch Talbot. Claimed by 2nd and 1st place teams.
Talbot looked like he was crashing to Earth this month, but put up a solid start against the Orioles on Friday despite allowing a ton of fly balls. He's not bad for a match-up with the Royals this coming week, but still looks like a big crash-and-burn candidate going forward.

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