Monday, April 20, 2009

A.L. FAAB Log: April 20, 2009

Ricky Romero $15. Other bids $12, $8, $4, $4, $1.
Entering 2009, Romero was known as the guy who was taken over Troy Tulowitzki by the Blue Jays in the minor league draft and was mostly viewed as a failed prospect. While not old for a pitching prospect, the Cal State-Fullerton product had put up two subpar seasons at AA with poor walk rates and it didn't look like he'd ever develop enough command to project out to more than a Quad-A pitcher. Three starts into 2009, Romero looks like he might defy expectations and turn into a useful middle-of-the-rotation major league starter. He's an impressive 2-0 with a 1.71 ERA thus far, and more importantly has walked only four batters in 21 IP. Romero isn't overpowering but has sat this year around 91 MPH and has effectively thrown four pitches for strikes, keeping hitters off balance enough to make up for the lack of a true punch out pitch. I don't think Romero is going to put up the ace-like numbers he's delivered thus far, but do believe that his improvement is for real and that we should see a solid MLB starter the rest of the way.

Gary Matthews Jr. $5. Other bids $4, $1, $1.
With Vladimir Guerrero on the DL, Matthews should benefit the most with a boost in playing time, particularly since Mike Scioscia doesn't seem to want to make Mike Napoli his full-time DH. We all know the deal with Matthews: he's a bad player in real-life who will put up something in the neighborhood of a 700 OPS and doesn't belong in a major league line-up. However, he's going to get at least 4-5 starts a week while Vlad is out, has some pop, has some speed, and should be owned in all A.L.-only leagues right now.

Jerry Owens $3. Other bid $1.
When DeWayne Wise went down to injury and the ChiSox called up Wise, it seemed like a great opportunity for Owens and his 30-40 SB potential. However, he hasn't started over Brian Anderson since his promotion, and it seems like he's just keeping a roster spot warm until former White Sox
and Proven Winner Scott Podsednik is ready to go after a tune-up at AAA. Owens is certainly worth rolling the dice on for his speed but don't be surprised if he disappears after another week or so.

Aaron Laffey $3. Other bids $2, $2.
After Scott Lewis broke camp with the Tribe, it was starting to look like Laffey was going to go the way of Jeremy Sowers and disappear off of the Indians radar for good. But an early injury to Lewis opened the door for Laffey, and he took advantage with a solid start against the Royals. His stuff is underwhelming, but when Laffey's pitching well he gets hitters to pound the ball into the ground, and should benefit from his team's strong infield defense. He has two favorable starts this week against the Royals and Twins and at the very least is a good short-term play in the A.L. for that reason alone. He might keep the job over Lewis if he can simply replicate what he did in his first start.

Rob Johnson $2. Other bid $1.
Johnson showed steady if unspectacular improvement as he climbed up the minor league ladder, culminating in a 441 SLG at AAA in 2008. The problem is that he's 25 years old and is behind Kenji Johjima in the Mariners short term plans and Jeff Clement (perhaps) in their long term ones. Short-term, he should have some value while Johjima is on the DL. He should be good for the odd HR but don't expect a lot here. He would barely worth being picking up if he wasn't a catcher.


Landon Powell $2.
Powell is yet another A's
Moneyball prospect who looks like he won't pan out as anything more than a back-up in the majors. He's a Three True Outcomes guy whose .230 BA in the minors last year probably translates to a .200 BA in the majors, which won't cut it even if Powell walks 100 times. He made the A's roster as Kurt Suzuki's back-up, but he's been getting some time in at 1B and cutting into Travis Buck's playing time a little bit. Given Powell's catcher eligibility, he's worth grabbing as your second catcher if you have an opening, but keep your expectations limited.

Brian Bruney $1.
Bruney has been terrific for the Yankees so far. If you're in a 5x5 league, he's been especially valuable thus far. Mariano Rivera continues to be an anchor, but I suspect that Bruney is slowly moving himself into that position where he's next in line, and both Joe Torre and now Joe Girardi have rested Rivera a little more frequently as Rivera approaches 40. Bruney won't get 10 saves, but 4-6 aren't out of the question if things break right for him.

Derek Holland $1. Other bid $1.
Holland came out of nowhere last year and burst on the scene as one of the Rangers - and baseball's - top pitching prospects, primarily due to an increase in velocity mid-season from 90-92 MPH on the gun to 95-97 MPH. According to the scouting reports, he still needs work on his change-up and particularly his slider but if the bump in velocity holds up he's not that far behind Neftali Feliz in terms of potential impact. All that being said, the Rangers move to promote him now is puzzling. He had one poor start in AAA and is being brought up to pitch middle relief for the big club, presumably until an opening in the rotation crops up (yeah, I'm looking at you, Matt Harrison). Short term, he won't have a lot of value pitching in middle relief, but this is definitely a guy you want to stash on your reserve list if you can to see what happens. The reports on him indicate this could be a future star, and some bolder folks have compared this guy to Johan Santana in terms of his ceiling.

Gabe Kapler $1. Other bid $1.
With Matt Joyce getting sent to the minors, it looked like Kapler might have some short-term value, but Ben Zobrist has outplayed him and is getting a good chunk of starts in the OF instead of Kapler. However, B.J. Upton came up lame yesterday, making Kapler a decent short-term play once again, at least this week. When he's on, Kapler has the ability to show some decent pop, but he's been ice cold so far this year.

Brian Tallet $1.
With Brett Cecil off to a slow start, the Jays opted to turn to their bullpen and give Tallet a spot start in his place. He responded with a solid albeit short outing against the A's, tossing up 5 1/3 IP of one-run ball. The downside is that he only struck out one and the A's are collectively slumping. Tallet has a less favorable match-up this week at Chicago and I wouldn't recommend him at this point.

Mike Sweeney $1.
The good news for Sweeney is that he has held up so far and hasn't suffered any injuries. The bad news is that he's done almost nothing at the plate, hitting an empty .241 with a .276 SLG. I'd say I'm not sure how long the Mariners can continue dragging him out there, but this was the team last year that let Jose Vidro fester in their line-up for months before finally cutting him loose. Bid on Sweeney if you have an absolute dead spot, but don't expect much. Oh, and he's a DH only right now and only has two games at 1B so far.

Bobby Seay $1.
Seay probably has next to no chance at saves in the Tigers bullpen unless they're situational. He's a safe middle reliever who may or may not get wins depending on his usage pattern this year.

Kevin Millar. Claimed by 7th (tie), 6th and 3rd place teams.
Millar is off to a great start, but most of that great start is due to a pinch hit grand slam he hit this past week. He's useful in very deep A.L.-only leagues, but I expect Travis Snider and Adam Lind to get fewer days off as we move past April and into the dog days of the season.

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