Luis Atilano and BABIP

Luis Atilano is an accident waiting to happen.

He won again yesterday, beating the Cubs with six innings of solid work. He's now 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA. If he hasn't been picked up yet in your N.L.-only league, he will be this week.

But his peripherals are ugly. He's got a 2/5 K/BB ratio in 12 innings. He has a .257 BABIP versus a 23.9 percent LD%...his "expected" BABIP should sit at about .360. He's sitting in the high 80s with his fastball.

Could he be OK as a MLB 5th starter? It's possible (though that also means that it's not possible) that he can. But his minor league numbers sort of mirror his Major League performances. No dominant out pitch, low strikeout rates, and nothing that made him stand out.

If Atilano has anything going for him, it's that he does generate a decent amount of ground balls. He could survive if he manages to generate more grounders going forward. But he isn't the kind of ground ball machine that implies he'll be successful.