Thursday, April 29, 2010

NL Supplemental: Eric Young, Jr.

Eric Young, Jr. finally found his way back to the major leagues, the fortuitous beneficiary of a Brad Hawpe injury and a Clint Barmes offensive disappearing act. I am guessing that Young is owned in most deep N.L.-only leagues with either a reserve list or a farm system, so let's talk to those of you with no such system.

Young has made the progression from year to year in the minors with little variance in his overall numbers (aside from the number of steals, which is to be expected). He consistently gets on base, consistently steals bases, and finds a way to keep his on-base percentage close to .400. His first foray into the majors last year did not go nearly as well, generating some concerns that he may be a AAAA player or a career pinch-runner.

This year, however, is the opposite - Young got off to a terrible start in AAA, but, in his limited number of ABs so far, is showing surprising pitch selectivity and is keeping the ball on the ground. No one on the planet believes Young will keep up his 40% line drive percentage and/or his .556 BABIP (and if you know someone who does, you should trade Eric Young to him right now). On the flip side, Young has stolen a couple of bags already and only struck out once.

There are a number of prospects that should be hitting the waiver wire near you in those leagues without farm systems or minors-eligible reserve lists (Strasburg, Stanton, Posey, et al.), so I do not consider EYJR to be a bank-breaker. Moreover, there are some concerns about playing time...when Hawpe comes back, who goes? Young is the most-likely candidate, unless you think Barmes could be DFA'd (and I could see this happening). If Young continues to hit like this, however, he is going to stay with the club. Given that he could steal 25 bases easily in part-time to full-time play, I think the minimum FAAB bid for Young is $18, though I believe you may need to go to $22-$24 to get him. If you are desperate for steals, I think he is the best candidate for an impact speed threat that will come up in the near future.

2 comments:

T.J. said...

FWIW, in my $260, 14/9, 10-team NL-only league with $175 in FAAB (don't ask), the bidding went $15/$10/$6 for EY (I got him). Our league has a $15 maximum bid without signing the player to a 2-year contract.

Nick said...

Thanks for the write-up Toz!