Monday, March 29, 2010

Leagues with Fewer Teams

Dr. Hibbert asks a question some of us one-league players encounter: what do you do when your league has fewer than the "standard" number of teams?
We play in an 11-team NL-only league. Established league with relatively savvy owners. Weird unrelated circumstances have led to the unexpected dropping of 2 teams at the last minute. Freezes had already been submitted, and prior to losing these owners I had inflation calculated in the 10-15% range. I realize that inflation will come way down (likely close to zero)with these owners out and the available player pool expanded, but my concern is what happens at the auction. Do the top players become more valuable in this type of situation (similar to a mixed league auction), or should I plan on filling out my team in usual fashion with pricing adjusted for a 9-team league? Or, to ask another way, do I overpay now for studs with such an abundance of available talent?
I've addressed this question twice before.

This answer provides some practical and some theoretical advice, while this one provides a more concrete mechanism for making these adjustments.

And you are correct, Dr. Hibbert, that prices on the top players should either stay the same or go up slightly, while prices for guys in the middle and at the bottom should go down.

It is not quite as radical as mixed league pricing, because your free agents aren't going to be weak regulars like they are in a 15-team mixed league. Two hundred and ten hitters are purchased in a mixed league, while 254 starters (not including platoons) are available to be purchased. In a nine-team, N.L. only, you will be buying 126 hitters and there will be 126 every day players to buy (one or two teams are going to get stuck with a back-up catcher). Your league will have a deeper free agent pool, but it's not quite as deep as a mixed league.

So don't get carried away and pay $55-60 for Albert Pujols because the free agent pool is awash with talent. You're going to get 14 every day players, but you don't want to get stuck with Tommy Manzella and David Eckstein because you overpaid for Pujols. Tick Albert up by $1-2 or leave him at his price, but don't go crazy.

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