what do you think of the prices paid here? I read some comments about them on pattonandco which indicated some of them are pretty far out.At first glance, I thought the prices in the American League Tout Wars auction were too conservative, or what Alex Patton and I might call Stage 2. Only seven hitters cracked the $30 price barrier, and there were a lot of prices in the middle that also seemed to tread cautiously.
However, a glance at last year's actual 5x5 earnings made me wonder if the Tout Warriors actually got that part of the equation right.
Only six hitters actually earned $30+ in the A.L. last year, with the best hitter - Jacoby Ellsbury - "only" earning $36. The American League pool of hitters is simply deeper than the National League pool. Part of that is obviously the presence of the DH, but it also seems like there are more weak sisters in the National League that are sending some pretty sorry regulars out there to grind it out on a daily basis.
It is when you get into the $20s where I think some of the prices were low. Dustin Pedroia $26, Justin Morneau $26 and Ichiro Suzuki $26 all seem like examples where the touts were being a little cute. Michael Young at $19 jumped out as a player where everyone would rather not say $20 than get stuck buying him a year too late. Maybe as individual examples these prices don't seem that extreme, but you could see where some of these slightly cheaper prices had an impact down the line.
Brett Gardner at $18 is the one price that screams there was too much money at the end. But there were some subtler examples. Alberto Callapso $12, David Murphy $12, Sean Rodriguez $10, Ryan Raburn $10, Ty Wigginton $10, Nick Punto $7. These are all prices where I don't see the upside (with the possible exception of Rodriguez if he starts all year). I know that any of these players could defy expectations and see regular playing time. I just don't like paying players for the hope of playing time where there currently isn't any.
However, at second glance the hitting prices on the whole were tighter (and better) than I thought they were as I was watching the auction live. I'll take a look at the A.L. pitchers in my next post.
2 comments:
Thanks for your answer, Mike, they're always enlightening. I have another question which is puzzling me relating to using inflation to rank your team prior to the auction. I am having trouble figuring out the auction value column from your post of March 1, 2008 and others. In your words, This is computed by dividing the $ to spend by the total value remaining in the auction ($3,120 minus the Value $ column = $1,625). My projected inflation rate for my league is 21.7%. Divide this number by each team's money left to spend in the auction and you have the Auction Value. I just dont get this. Thanks.
I figured out what you meant so no need to answer this after all.
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