Eugene Freedman contends that some of the pitching prices were soft.
Some exhibits from the AL Tout Wars yesterday. My league would laugh at most of these prices and I was way off. These guys are generally half of what they'd go for in "non-expert" AL only 5x5 leagues.Toz addressed Eugene's comment in a follow-up comment. His basic point was that while he thought some of the Tout Wars prices might have been a little low, they weren't that far out of line.
Rich Harden $8, Scott Kazmir $9, John Danks $12, Ben Sheets $6, Jeremy Guthrie $2, Joel Pineiro $6, Carl Pavano $2, Ryan Rowland-Smith $4, Kevin Slowey $9, Justin Masterson $3, Andy Pettitte $7
These guys are almost pure upside with all of the downside risk already priced in. I'd have taken 9 starters and won Wins and Ks and still performed well in ERA/Ratio, but still only paid well below 1/3 of my team salary on pitching had I been in AL Tout. I'm sure that opportunity will be available in NL as well. It's a soft spot for these "experts."
I'm inclined to agree with Toz. The Sheets price looks low, but he didn't throw an inning last year. Kazmir seems low, too, but he was terrible for Tampa Bay and there are always whispers about his elbow. Like Toz, I think underestimating Pineiro because he's no longer in St. Louis and with Dave Duncan is a mistake. That worm burner he throws isn't going away anytime soon.
However, I look at a lot of these other prices and while I might think they're a couple of dollars off in one direction or another they're not crazy.
A better question to ponder is: If the prices on these types of pitchers were too high, then who cost too much?
1) The top pitchers? Nope. I can't quibble with the prices on any of the top 10 pitchers. CC Sabathia ($28) and Zack Greinke ($27) might actually be a little on the cheap end. Paying $20 for non-elite closers like Jose Valverde and Rafael Soriano might be a little too much, but that's not where the money went.
2) The top hitters? Again, no. I think Mark Teixeira ($35) and Evan Longoria's ($33) prices are high for guys who don't contribute in all five categories, but not outrageously so.
How did Tout Wars A.L. split their offensive/pitching dollars?
$2,184 on hitters and $918 on pitchers (they left $18 on the table).
After years of getting close, the touts finally spent over 70% of their money on hitting. Pitchers have been deemed too risky a proposition in general and as a result take pay cuts not just where Eugene objects, but across the board.
I don't quibble with the pay cuts for the pitchers. What I dislike is where the money went on the hitting side.
I talked about this yesterday, but it is worth reiterating again here. If you're going to skimp on the pitching, don't redistribute that money toward the grunts at the bottom. Brett Gardner ($18), Delmon Young ($14), and David Murphy ($11) are examples of players I don't like at those prices. The upside is almost entirely gone at these rates for players who may or may not get AB this season. But even on the lower end, guys like Eric Byrnes ($5), Hank Blalock ($5) and Jeremy Hermida ($6) are players I'd rather pay in the $1-3 range for. These players are extremely unpredictable. You're going to find bench players in the $1-3 range who earn more than Byrnes, Blalock, and Hermida, even if you don't know who they are just yet.
Do what Eugene suggests and spend a little more on some of the mid-tier pitchers. Or do what I did in National League Tout Wars and spend a little extra money on the star caliber players. But don't push on the lower level hitters or - worse - bench players. You will be sorry if you do.
2 comments:
Mike makes a great point here about redistribution. It is true before the auction and during the auction...if you are going to redistribute, do it on the top tier players.
We've talked about this in the past regarding player preference, tweaking hitter/pitcher inflation and the like...why spend extra dollars on the scrubeenies? Put those dollars to the stat generators.
Mike, posting this here because too lazy to scroll and find the original post - and because I think is relevant to the seemingly lower prices. My AL only 10 team league, recall my dilemma as to how to find value when pretty much going in with a slightly above par (value) team, has done something I have not seen, maybe ever. Flat inflation - a long time keeper league who saw wild 40% inflation last year. 1% or less this year. I think is due to the sense, and I suspect with these Touts, that the pendulum had swung too far and that taking value, even if at par, was better than spending 50$on Grady Sizemore. One team has an estimated, Patton, 24$ profit. Unfortunately not mine, but most of that, in fact almost all of that, is his Adam Lind @ 2$. A new stage? Recession era pricing? Does the first owner who grabs, one of the few star players available this year, even if slightly above par, make out well? Or, is this simply a return to older Stages in which a patient owner biding his or her time can grab huge values? I think the problem for the patient owner will be that more than one other will also be patient, and that the following players are already frozen: Mauer, VMart, Texeiria, ARod, Jeter, Cano, Longoria, Crawford, Sizemore, Youk, Greinke, King Felix and Sabathia?
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