Today I'll look at pitchers.
Top 10 Profits, A.L. Pitchers
| # | Player | $ | Sal | +/- | CBS | LABR | TW | BABG |
| 1 | Zack Greinke | $44 | $21 | +23 | $20 | $22 | $21 | $6F |
| 2 | Justin Verlander | $37 | $15 | +22 | $16 | $14 | $15 | $17F |
| 3 | David Aardsma | $22 | $1 | +21 | $4 | $2 | ||
| 4 | Felix Hernandez | $40 | $21 | +20 | $22 | $20 | $20 | $28 |
| 5 | Edwin Jackson | $23 | $4 | +19 | $3 | $4 | $4 | $2 |
| 6 | Jarrod Washburn | $17 | $0 | +17 | $1 | $1 | ||
| 7 | Kevin Millwood | $18 | $1 | +17 | $2 | $1 | $1 | |
| 8 | Jeff Niemann | $16 | $1 | +16 | $2 | $1 | ||
| 9 | J.P. Howell | $17 | $2 | +15 | $3 | $2 | $1 | $1F |
| 10 | Brett Anderson | $18 | $3 | +15 | $2 | $6 | $8 | |
| Average | $25 | $7 | +19 | $7 | $6 | $7 | $7 |
For a group of pitchers who were ultimately very unpredictable, the market's prices for them were extremely predictable last year. Only Aardsma and Anderson have more than a $2 gap from the lowest price to the highest price, and in both cases this has to do with a change in role.
The best explanation I have for the price similarities is that while CBS insisted on pushing the top hitters past their "standard" Stage Three prices, it refused to do the same for pitchers. There are exceptions, of course, but for the 10 biggest surprises last year, you can't argue that any of these bids are senseless, particularly in context of the other bids above.
Looking at the 10 biggest discrepancies sheds some additional light on the expert league differences.
Ten Biggest Expert League Discrepancies, A.L. Pitchers 2009
| # | Player | $ | Sal | +/- | CBS | LABR | TW | BABG |
| 1 | Justin Duchscherer | $8 | -8 | $14 | $9 | $2 | $10F | |
| 2 | Bobby Jenks | $14 | $22 | -8 | $28 | $18 | $20 | $31F |
| 3 | Ervin Santana | $6 | $16 | -11 | $21 | $17 | $11 | $10F |
| 4 | B.J. Ryan | -$1 | $21 | -22 | $27 | $18 | $18 | $20F |
| 5 | Dan Wheeler | $11 | $6 | +5 | $2 | $10 | $6 | $8F |
| 6 | Scott Baker | $22 | $16 | +6 | $12 | $18 | $19 | $8F |
| 7 | Gavin Floyd | $20 | $11 | +9 | $15 | $10 | $8 | $10F |
| 8 | Fausto Carmona | -$6 | $9 | -15 | $11 | $11 | $4 | $7F |
| 9 | Jesse Litsch | -$1 | $6 | -7 | $3 | $10 | $4 | $1F |
| 10 | Scot Shields | -$1 | $4 | -4 | $1 | $8 | $2 | $6F |
| Average | $6 | $12 | -5 | $13 | $13 | $9 | $11 |
CBS gets caught with two pitchers (Duchscherer and Santana) who get hurt after their early auction and see their prices drop appreciably. Two owners also make the mistake of chasing closers (Jenks and Ryan) after the big names go off the board and wind up paying as much or more for them in this auction than any closer except for Jon Papelbon.
I wasn't at the LABR auction, so it's harder to comment on the outlier prices. Looking at my spreadsheet, CBS spent $20 or more on 21 pitchers, Tout Wars on 16 pitchers, and LABR on 11. While CBS might have spent a little too much early and run out of money for a guy like Baker, it seems that LABR was too conservative and wound up chasing guys like Litsch, Shields, and Wheeler past their logical endpoints.
The only non-injury outlier for Tout Wars is Carmona. He had a strong Spring Training, so I'm not sure if the Tout Warriors are geniuses or if they ran out of money.
In the N.L., CBS veers back slightly toward their Stage One ways.
Top 10 Profits, N.L. Pitchers
| # | Player | $ | Sal | +/- | CBS | LABR | TW | LIBL |
| 1 | Chris Carpenter | $33 | $8 | +25 | $7 | $6 | $10 | $6F |
| 2 | Joel Pineiro | $21 | $2 | +19 | $2 | $3 | $1F | |
| 3 | Randy Wolf | $24 | $5 | +19 | $2 | $6 | $8 | $2 |
| 4 | Ryan Franklin | $19 | $2 | +18 | $1 | $1 | $3 | $3 |
| 5 | J.A. Happ | $19 | $2 | +17 | $1 | $2 | $2 | $1 |
| 6 | Wandy Rodriguez | $25 | $9 | +16 | $3 | $13 | $11 | $1F |
| 7 | Jorge de la Rosa | $15 | $0 | +15 | $1 | |||
| 8 | Jair Jurrjens | $26 | $11 | +15 | $10 | $11 | $11 | $14F |
| 9 | Ubaldo Jimenez | $24 | $9 | +15 | $9 | $9 | $9 | $2F |
| 10 | Rafael Soriano | $18 | $4 | +15 | $1 | $8 | $2 | $6 |
| Average | $25 | $7 | +19 | $4 | $6 | $6 | $4 |
They're out to lunch on Rodriguez, and their price for Wolf is a little low. On the other hand, the freeze league I used in this example to compare (LIBL) also had a pretty low price on Wolf, so it's possible that LABR and Tout Wars were a little too excited about some of these pitchers.
On the other hand, the Jurrjens and Jimenez prices are pure Stage Three. You think there'd be more market disagreement about the trajectory of two young pitchers like Jurrjens and U-Ball, but there isn't.
In this next list, CBS doesn't just veer back toward Stage One, they jump into the deep end of the pool.
Ten Biggest Expert League Discrepancies, N.L. Pitchers 2009
| # | Player | $ | Sal | +/- | CBS | LABR | TW | LIBL |
| 1 | Brandon Webb | -$1 | $30 | -31 | $36 | $28 | $25 | $36 |
| 2 | Carlos Zambrano | $12 | $16 | -3 | $23 | $12 | $12 | $28 |
| 3 | Johan Santana | $21 | $34 | -13 | $40 | $30 | $31 | $47 |
| 4 | Cole Hamels | $13 | $30 | -17 | $36 | $28 | $26 | $10F |
| 5 | Wandy Rodriguez | $25 | $9 | +16 | $3 | $13 | $11 | $1F |
| 6 | Manny Corpas | -$1 | $6 | -$7 | $1 | $7 | $11 | $5F |
| 7 | Tommy Hanson | $18 | $6 | +12 | $1 | $11 | $5 | ML |
| 8 | Jason Motte | $3 | $6 | -3 | $1 | $5 | $11 | $7F |
| 9 | Rich Harden | $13 | $19 | -6 | $24 | $19 | $15 | $26 |
| 10 | Carlos Marmol | $10 | $20 | -10 | $24 | $20 | $16 | $6F |
| Average | $11 | $18 | -6 | $19 | $17 | $16 | $17 |
Thirty-six for Webb, $40 for Santana, and $36 for Hamels. Even LIBL with its 30%+ inflation has trouble keeping up and can't push Webb past CBS' non-inflation price.
Beyond CBS' Stage One tomfoolery, the other variances are examples of how prices change as we get closer to the season. In both Corpas and Motte's cases, that wasn't necessarily a good thing; everyone was afraid of Huston Street when it turns it they didn't need to be, and spending any kind of money in the Cardinals bullpen turned out to be a fools errand.
3 comments:
Just for points of reference- my league seems to be more like the BABG league, in that it pays more for the top and who it expects to be the top starting pitchers. BABG paid a lot more for the King than the "experts" and my league did as well. Same with the other budding aces (Verlander and Grienke) and second tier starters like Floyd and Baker as well. Finishing place of the drafting team is in parens.
Grienke 26 (11)
Verlander 25 (1)
Aardsma FAAB
King Felix 27 (6)
Jackson 2 (11)
Washburn 2 (5)
Millwood 5 (5)
Niemann 1 (9)
Howell 2 (1)
BrettAnderson 7 (7)
Duchscherer 3 (10)
Jenks 21 (7)
Santana 4F (4)
BJ Ryan 14 (12)
Wheeler 2 (9)
Baker 19 (12)
Floyd 14 (4)
Carmona 6F (10)
Litsch 4F (9)
S Shields 3 (5)
Amiable brief and this mail helped me alot in my college assignement. Say thank you you seeking your information.
Well I agree but I about the collection should have more info then it has.
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