Price Variance: Expert Leagues: Hitters

After I put the bargains and busts lists for 2009 to bed, Eugene found himself somewhat taken aback at some of the low, low prices on the list.

I'm somewhat surprised at the list of highest profits. Not necessarily who is on the list, but how cheaply they went in the experts leagues.

Kendry Morales went for $18 in my 5x5 AL. We do draft the day before the season starts, though, and he had already secured himself the starting job by then. Maybe the early drafts hurt his price a lot and traditional draft day price was higher. Same with Franklin Gutierrez @ $16, but that could just have been a quirk of when he came up. I believe he was one of the last full-time outfielders announced in my draft.

This is as good an opportunity as any to delve into the price difference between the three expert leagues I used for the average market price.

Top 10 Profits, A.L. Hitters

#	Player	$	Sal	+/-	CBS	LABR	Tout	BABG
1	Ben Zobrist	$27	$2	+25	$4	$1	$1	$1
2	Kendry Morales	$27	$8	+19	$2	$11	$10	$10F
3	Raj Davis	$23	$6	+17	$1	$10	$8	$3
4	Jason Bartlett	$28	$12	+17	$3	$16	$16	$19
5	Aaron Hill	$27	$11	+16	$10	$11	$11	$15
6	Marlon Byrd	$19	$4	+15	$1	$7	$4	$5F
7	Marco Scutaro	$19	$4	+15	$1	$6	$6	$3
8	Franklin Gutierrez	$21	$6	+14	$2	$10	$7	$10F
9	Maicer Izturis	$18	$3	+14	$2	$5	$3	$4
10	Michael Cuddyer	$22	$8	+14	$11	$8	$5	$21F
	Average	$23	$6	+17	$4	$9	$7	$9

I added a column (BABG) so that we could look at my carryover A.L. to compare and contrast.

CBS definitely makes these hitters cheaper. Part of that is the Stage One mentality the CBS league has: pay big bucks for the superstars and extend the endgame. I do believe, though, that part of this ties into what Eugene alluded to above: the uncertainty of all three early auctions, particularly CBS.

This doesn't necessarily mean that CBS is "wrong" in every case. BABG auctioned the latest among all the leagues here; the prices for Davis and Scutaro in BABG didn't seem out of line or extremely cheap to me at all, and one could argue that in the case of Davis especially that LABR and Tout Wars were being a little too cute.

The big issue in the cases of Morales, Gutierrez and especially Bartlett is that CBS definitely spent too much money early. Regardless of how you felt about Bartlett, three dollars is way too little for a definitive starting SS to go for in any auction, let alone an expert auction.

Ten Biggest Expert League Discrepancies, A.L. Hitters 2009

#	Player	$	Sal	+/-	CBS	LABR	Tout	BABG
1	Alex Rodriguez	$25	$32	-8	$50	$22	$25	$30
2	Ty Wigginton	$9	$10	-1	$1	$17	$12	$15
3	Grady Sizemore	$15	$41	-27	$51	$37	$36	$15F
4	Ian Kinsler	$26	$36	-10	$44	$33	$30	$15F
5	Jason Bartlett	$28	$12	+17	$3	$16	$16	$19
6	Justin Morneau	$20	$33	-13	$40	$28	$30	$31F
7	Alexi Casilla	$2	$7	-5	$1	$8	$13	$10F
8	Evan Longoria	$26	$33	-7	$40	$29	$29	$10F
9	Matt Holliday	$14	$30	-16	$37	$26	$28	$42
10	David Murphy	$14	$9	+5	$3	$10	$14	$2F
	Average	$18	$24	-7	$27	$23	$23	$19

Here is the other half of the Stage One equation being played out in CBS. A-Rod's price surely would have come down if CBS had auctioned after February 11, but the rest of the $30+ prices here are clearly Stage One prices.

The cheap prices here, though, have more to do with uncertainty than with Stage One. Wigginton was an MLB free agent when CBS auctioned and would have been lost to the N.L. if he had signed with a National League team. Casilla may have had a job heading into 2009, but a lot of owners didn't trust him. Murphy status was definitely uncertain.

I've spent plenty of time chastising CBS for paying more for players than they can feasibly earn in a fresh auction so I'm not going to do so again here.

The price variances aren't nearly as radical in the N.L.

Top 10 Profits, N.L. Hitters

#	Player	$	Sal	+/-	CBS	LABR	TW	LIBL
1	Michael Bourn	$33	$9	+24	$4	$12	$10	$6F
2	Nyjer Morgan	$27	$4	+24		$5	$6	$6F
3	Mark Reynolds	$33	$14	+19	$14	$14	$13	$15F
4	Andrew McCutchen	$22	$3	+19	$3	$3	$2	ML
5	Matt Diaz	$20	$2	+18	$1	$1	$3	$3
6	Dexter Fowler	$17	$3	+14	$1	$2	$7	ML
7	Todd Helton	$24	$10	+14	$10	$6	$13	$15
8	Carlos Gonzalez	$16	$2	+14	$2	$3	$1	$6
9	Martin Prado	$16	$2	+14		$3	$3	$1
10	Pablo Sandoval	$29	$16	+14	$11	$19	$17	$5F
	Average	$24	$6	+17	$5	$7	$8	$6

After Bourn and Morgan, most of the hitters on this list are crap shoot players that are going to be cheap in all three leagues. Fowler is the exception, but it didn't seem like he'd start the year in the majors until near the end of Spring Training.

The CBS N.L. doesn't seem to have quite the same Stage One, gung-ho mentality as the CBS A.L. does.

Ten Biggest Expert League Discrepancies, N.L. Hitters 2009

#	Player	$	Sal	+/-	CBS	LABR	Tout	LIBL
1	Ryan Braun	$40	$41	-1	$52	$37	$34	$15F
2	Elijah Dukes	$9	$16	-7	$6	$21	$21	$9F
3	Jordan Schafer	$0	$5	-5		$1	$15
4	Lastings Milledge	$7	$18	-11	$9	$22	$23	$15F
5	Cody Ross	$20	$12	+9	$4	$13	$18	$1F
6	David Wright	$28	$45	-17	$52	$44	$39	$54
7	Ryan Spilborghs	$10	$12	-1	$4	$14	$17	$1F
8	Ryan Howard	$34	$36	-2	$43	$33	$32	$15F
9	Felipe Lopez	$21	$15	+6	$8	$18	$19	$26
10	Fred Lewis	$8	$14	-6	$9	$13	$20	$1F
	Average	$18	$21	-4	$19	$22	$24	$14

There are only three Cadillacs on this list that are pushed well past their LABR/Tout prices. While the CBS prices for Braun, Howard and Wright are high, in Braun and Howard's cases it seems that LABR/Tout were a little too conservative. You don't want your opponents getting profits from the league's best players; you want them to pay par, and maybe even a little over.

Meanwhile, it's some of the Tout Wars prices that I'm eying suspiciously here, not the CBS prices. $21 for Dukes, $23 for Milledge, $18 for Ross, and $20 for Lewis? It seems to me that - even without the benefit of hindsight - that the Tout Warriors are pushing these guys toward their upside. I'd rather let some of these guys go and pay $33-35 for Braun and Howard.