A Note About Expert Leagues and Average Pricing

Eugene took me to task for some of the prices in my off-season analysis.

I think the post mortem for these "expert" leagues is a bit of a false picture to some degree just because of draft timing. (Joey) Devine wasn't the closer on my draft day. (Chris) Ray was not fully healthy and (George) Sherrill wasn't yet on the block. Then, again, I draft the day before the season starts, so most jobs and injuries are clearer.

As Mandy Patankin so aptly told Terry Twillstein in the 2002 film classic Run Ronnie Run, I don't disagree.

The three expert leagues have their auctions at three vastly separate phases of the offseason.

CBS Sports typically has theirs in early February, before Spring Training has started and when a lot of job situations are still up in the air. There are a few Major League free agents floating around, adding further to the ambiguous nature of the entire affair.

LABR's auction is usually right at the beginning of March. By this time, the free agent picture is almost completely settled, but any job battles have not been settled so we don't know how seriously we should take the Rangers when they tell us that Elvis Andrus is going to be their Opening Day starter and get 500 AB.

Tout Wars auctions in late March. By this time, most of the ambiguity is settled. Something could happen in the week or so between their auction and Opening Day, but generally you're bidding based on much more information than you are in early February.

In some cases, the price differences are due to a specific event and the average price winds up being of little or no help. Joe Mauer dropped from $24 (CBS), to $21 (LABR) down to $14 (Tout). The fears of his injury grew and grew to the point where the bidders in Tout refused to even push him to $15.

However, I use the average prices because some of the pricing variance has nothing to do with changes in circumstances and is nevertheless fascinating. Mike Jacobs, for example, went for $13, $20, and $16. There were no significant changes in Jacobs' status for the Kansas City Royals in the spring of 2009. He was inked in as the starting 1B for the Royals and there was no doubt that he was going to play. Yet LABR went relatively nuts for Jacobs while CBS made a conservative play. It turned out that CBS was the closest to predicting Jacobs' terrible season.

Other differences are intriguing because they go against conventional wisdom. Andrus' prices were $13, $13, and $9. By the time Tout Wars convened, it was fairly obvious that Andrus was at least going to get an honest shot at the SS job for the Rangers, yet they dropped their price $4 from CBS/LABR.

I could rattle off example after example, but draft timing certainly doesn't explain away the differences in their entirety.

I've thought about making exceptions for players like Devine. However, if I do that, where do I draw the line? Dustin McGowan went unauctioned in CBS and for a mere $1 in Tout Wars, but he went for $5 in LABR. Was there a positive health report about McGowan in late February that I missed or wasn't aware of? Did LABR have too much money on the table at the end of their auction and wind up chasing (as I suspect)? Or was this simply an anomaly on one player?

I don't have the answer so I leave McGowan's $2 average salary as is, put him down for a $2 loss and move on.

Honestly, I would prefer to use three non-expert leagues to set my average prices. However, this exercise cannot work with freeze prices thrown into the mix and it is difficult to find three veteran, one-league leagues (or new leagues with veteran players) that are starting over or starting anew. If you want to start sending me data for your leagues this year, give me a holler in the comments section. If there is enough interest, this is a feature I'd be willing to introduce next winter.