I think Alex's bid prices don't match up well with his computed projected prices.Before I continue, I have to clear up one misconception (or, more likely, omission) from Eugene's comment. Peter Kreutzer - a.k.a Rotoman - has been generating the projections for Patton & Company for the last few years. I can't say for certain how long he's been at the wheel. However, the fact that the projections are generated by Rotoman while the bids are generated by Patton is the greatest reason for the disparity. In reality, you're buying two different sets of opinions...even if you're not buying two separate projections.
Several second basemen fit that profile - high average, high SB. Yet, the Patton bid isn't quite there. If he just bid his projections he'd probably get Brian Roberts. Same goes for(Howie) Kendrick b/c his projected BA is quite high with solid steals. (Robinson) Cano is another BA guy, but without the bags. (Placido) Polanco as well. I'd be interested in seeing the projected price versus AP Bid price.
Since Eugene commented on A.L. middle infielders, it's worth looking at them to see where the price differences fall.
Ten Most Expensive A.L. Second Basemen 2009
A ha! I thought Patton's prices were conservative. Rotoman (represented by the PK column in the chart above) is even further away from the market than Patton is, missing the mark by $4 per player. His conservatism is most evident at the top of the chart, where last year's $30+ hitters reside. Rotoman is anticipating regression to the mean to the extreme. While he might be overly cautious, his caution on these hitters is warranted compared to the market on Kinsler and Pedroia. If you only looked at Rotoman's projections, you would have avoided losses on these hitters.
The down side is that you would had the same problem in an A.L. using Patton's prices and you might have missed out on all of these hitters. Rotoman doesn't get a single one of these hitters outright, and only ties on DeRosa and Kendrick.
Is Rotoman just stingy with middle infielders or across the board?
Ten Most Expensive A.L. Outfielders 2009
Yikes. Rotoman is even more penurious on this group of hitters, missing the market's price by $7 per player. The only hitter he ties the market on here is Ellsbury.
The flip side of that is that he's kicking the market's ass on these hitters as a group. His prices told you to avoid Sizemore, Hamilton, Upton and Rios with a vengeance. In fact, the only hitter Rotoman is way below the market on with his projection and looks bad is Bay. This is a great set of projections.
Since projections include players who won't be on a typical auction roster, you can have more than $3,120 or $3,380 worth of stats. As a result, Rotoman's numbers needn't add up to these numbers. I am curious to see if he's "spending" more money in the middle than the market or not.
71-80 Most Expensive A.L. Hitters 2009
He most definitely is. Not only is Rotoman spending his money here, but he's kicking the shit out of both Patton and the market.
Putting aside individual player preferences, this is where Rotoman's pricing system speaks volume. If I could sum up what it is saying in a tidy few sentences, it would be this:
Players at the top are likely to fail. At least some of them are. Don't pay for peak performance. Guys in the middle will probably continue to linger in the middle, and will get underpaid by those paying $30+ hoping for continued $30+ performances. Pay the guys in the middle and hope that they stay there.To be sure, the one thing you don't want to do here is pay par prices for guys like Drew, Guillen, and Cust. These guys are profitable because the market discounts them. Take away the discount and you're buying a par team, whether you're using Rotoman's prices or the market's.
However, there's something to be said for Stage Three caution, and it appears that Rotoman is exercising that caution expertly.
Getting back to Alex...
It looks like he's trying to offer a compromise somewhere between Rotoman's conservative projections on the top guys and what the market is actually paying for those guys. The result is what you see above. Patton is coming closer to paying the guys at the top than Rotoman is, but he's still missing the mark.
What's intriguing is that maybe -after all of this talk of how Patton and Sports Weekly were underpaying - that Rotoman might be on to something.
If Stage One is starting to rear its ugly head, it may be time to go back to a good old fashioned Stage Three mentality.