For the most part, hitters recovered somewhat or mostly from their bad seasons and came much closer to matching prior levels of performance than you might have expected. This was particularly true in the National League, where some disappointments in 2008 even exceeded their expectations from that year and were significant bargains.
I wondered how well this would work on the other side of our game.
Top 10 Losses, A.L. Pitchers (2008)
| Rank | Player | $ | Sal | +/- | AP/MF | SW | '08 $ | '08 Sal |
| 1 | Erik Bedard | $13 | $15 | -2 | $16 | $11 | $9 | $30 |
| 2 | Fausto Carmona | -$6 | $9 | -15 | $14 | $7 | -$1 | $19 |
| 3 | Justin Verlander | $37 | $15 | +22 | $18 | $18 | $10 | $28 |
| 4 | Clay Buchholz | $8 | $3 | +5 | R1 | $1 | -$5 | $12 |
| 5 | J.J. Putz** | -$0 | $7 | -8 | $5 | $5 | $9 | $26 |
| 6 | Dontrelle Willis | -$4 | $0 | -5 | R3 | -$6 | $10 | |
| 7 | CC Sabathia | $34 | $31 | +3 | $32 | $28 | $13* | $28 |
| 8 | Ian Kennedy | $0 | 0 | R2 | -$6 | $12 | ||
| 9 | Phil Hughes | $17 | $4 | +13 | R2 | $1 | -$3 | $7 |
| 10 | Joe Borowski | $0 | $13 | |||||
| Average | $10 | $8 | +1 | $9 | $7 | $2 | $19 |
**N.L. in 2009
Generally speaking, not as well. The group turns a profit, but Verlander and Hughes are the only big winners on this list...and Verlander fits the bounce back season much better than Hughes does. Hughes was a young pitcher who didn't bounce back to do anything; he emerged after (some) hype in 2008, albeit in a different role.
This list has every type of potential bounce back candidate on it. In addition to Verlander and Hughes, Carmona also fits the description of a young pitcher who took a wrong turn in 2008. Buchholz and Kennedy are young arms that haven't quite arrived yet, while Bedard and (to a lesser extent) Willis are injured veterans who had been studs once. There are even a couple of ex-closers on this list.
This isn't a really good place to go fishing but, for the most part, the bait we're using is pretty small. Carmona is the only significant disappointment here; Putz owners who knew that his elbow was at risk probably weren't extremely upset that their gamble didn't pan out.
At least American League owners had Hughes and Verlander. In the N.L., the pickings were even slimmer.
Top 10 Losses, N.L. Pitchers (2008)
| Rank | Player | $ | Sal | +/- | AP/MF | SW | '08 $ | '08 Sal |
| 1 | Ian Snell** | -$3 | $8 | -10 | $5 | $3 | -$4 | $17 |
| 2 | Tom Gorzelanny | $4 | $1 | +4 | R2 | $2 | -$8 | $11 |
| 3 | Brad Penny* | $1 | $2 | -1 | $7 | $5 | -$3 | $14 |
| 4 | Manny Corpas | -$1 | $7 | -8 | $8 | $9 | $3 | $18 |
| 5 | John Smoltz* | -$3 | $5 | -9 | $5 | $10 | $5 | $20 |
| 6 | Chad Cordero | $1 | -1 | R2 | $1 | $0 | $15 | |
| 7 | Aaron Harang | $8 | $16 | -8 | $14 | $1 | $6 | $21 |
| 8 | Homer Bailey | $5 | $1 | +3 | $2 | -$7 | $7 | |
| 9 | Jason Isringhausen* | $1 | $0 | 0 | R2 | $2 | $15 | |
| 10 | Jeff Francis | $2 | -2 | R4 | $0 | $12 | ||
| Average | $1 | $4 | -3 | $4 | $3 | -$1 | $15 |
**Traded to the A.L. mid-season, N.L. stats only.
Of course, four of these players (including Cordero) started out in the A.L. in 2009 - this list only looks at busts from each respective league. But even Penny ($7) and Smoltz's ($3) N.L. earnings don't save this group from being a disaster.
Not one of these pitchers managed a double-digit season in 2009. But, then, the market didn't expect them to. Only Harang really gets paid off of what he had done in prior years. For everyone else, the bar has been lowered considerably. In some cases, this has a lot to do with the role of the pitcher (Isringhausen) or lack thereof. In others, injury (Cordero, Francis) is the culprit.
But there are some cases where it's a little surprising that the market isn't willing to roll the dice on a recovery. Snell and Gorzo both were solid just a short year before; it's a little odd that someone won't take a shot on them.
Maybe it isn't, though. We all know that pitching is more volatile and unpredictable. Why bother paying $10 for Snell when you can get someone who actually earned Roto loot in 2008 around the same price?
It appears that searching in the bargain bin for hitters is a more fruitful endeavor. With pitchers, you are bound to fail.
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