Turning Trash Into Treasure (Hitters)

Eugene suggested that taking a risk on a hitter who has previously performed could be one of the keys to the kingdom:

Taking risks on previously injured players may be part of Stage 4. Risk is priced in, but if they return to form, you get a profit on high quality players. I did it with Figgins in 2008 when he was known to be missing April. A friend did it with Roberts when he was rumored to be dealt to the NL by the Orioles in 2008. This year I did it with Mauer. If you get two hitters like this with a high established value, but depressed by injury or some other factor, he's more likely to reach his former levels than a player establishing a new level of play.

Here's another way of looking at it. What about the players who fell on their faces in 2008?

Top 10 Losses, A.L. Hitters (2008)

Rank	Player	$	Sal	+/-	AP	SW	'08 $	'08 Sal
1	Travis Hafner	$10	$7	+4	$11	$8	$1	$26
2	Victor Martinez	$23	$17	+6	$17	$23	$5	$26
3	Carl Crawford	$36	$36	0	$35	$33	$21	$41
4	Jorge Posada	$16	$10	+6	$10	$14	$4	$19
5	David Ortiz	$14	$23	-9	$25	$26	$19	$34
6	Aaron Hill	$27	$11	+16	$11	$13	$4	$18
7	Carlos Guillen	$6	$19	-13	$16	$17	$16	$29
8	Nick Swisher	$15	$9	+6	$6	$9	$11	$24
9	Josh Fields	$3	$8	-5	$4	$10	-$1	$12
10	Paul Konerko	$18	$15	+3	$16	$14	$12	$25
	Average	$17	$16	+1	$15	$17	$9	$25

Despite the $1 profit, you have to sort of give this group of hitters a W. As a group, these guys got a $7 raise from what they earned in 2008, yet six of them turned a profit while Crawford broke even (and missed beating Jacoby Ellsbury out as the best hitter in the American League by decimals).

This doesn't quite seem like what Eugene is talking about, though. These hitters are hardly "reaching their former levels" and many are "establishing a new level of play." Only Hill manages to improve upon his market expectation from 2008. While it's true that Martinez, Crawford, and Posada only take baby steps backward, they're still not bouncing back all the way to their expected levels of performance.

As a group, I do like the buying opportunities here, though. I bought V-Mart in my expert auction last year with confidence at $17. I didn't expect him to earn $23 again, but figured he'd come closer to earning the $26 he cost in 2008 than the $5 he earned.

That's really the idea here. You're not looking for a 100% bounce back to prior levels, but you are looking for a tidy profit due to negative expectations.

The 2008 N.L. failures did even better in 2009.

Top 10 Losses, N.L. Hitters (2008)

Rank	Player	$	Sal	+/-	AP	SW	'08 $	'08 Sal
1	Andrew Jones**	$7	$1	+6	$5	$2	-$5	$22
2	Eric Byrnes	$7	$10	-3	$9	$11	$2	$27
3	Troy Tulowitzki	$33	$21	+12	$20	$21	$7	$27
4	Jeff Francoeur	$19	$9	+10	$12	$16	$6	$25
5	Mark Teixeira**	$28	$38	-10	$29	$33	$17*	$35
6	Todd Helton	$24	$10	+14	$14	$10	$5	$19
7	Ryan Zimmerman	$29	$22	+7	$18	$22	$13	$26
8	Richie Weeks	$7	$17	-10	$16	$17	$13	$26
9	Prince Fielder	$35	$31	+4	$25	$27	$26	$38
10	Austin Kearns	$1	$2	-1	$4	$4	$2	$14
	Average	$19	$16	+3	$15	$16	$9	$26

*N.L. earnings only (earned $33 total in 2008)
**A.L. in 2009

When you take out Teixeira - who was only a failure in leagues that don't let you keep players traded to the "other" league - then the failures did even better. Byrnes, Weeks, and Kearns were the only players who didn't turn a profit, and the market counted so little on Kearns that it was practically irrelevant.

Here we see a few players - Tulowitzki, Helton, and Zimmerman - not only matching previously expected levels of performance but also surpassing them. This is what you're looking for when you spend money on these types of players: a Tulo-sized jackpot.

Generally speaking, I have to agree with Eugene's assertion that it's a decent idea to search through disappointments for this year's bargains. While there are some players (Guillen, Byrnes) who are likely regressing to a new level of play, many of these hitters do seem to be the kind of opportunities that we should be looking for on Auction Day.