Monday, January 11, 2010

Consistency Among Shortstops

After reading my write-up on A.L. shortstops, Eugene wrote that there really isn't anyone better than Derek Jeter at delivering the goods.
As much as I dislike the mythology that surrounds him, there is really nobody better at returning your investment at SS than Derek Jeter. He's always good for a .300+ BA and 100 runs. His SB are solidly predictable in the mid-teens, but sometimes make his value by jumping closer to 30. The HR are much more unpredictable, but solidly above 10.
As a Rotisserie earner, Eugene is right on the money...no one comes close to Jeter. From 2007-2009, he's earned $84 in the American League. Michael Young (who counts as a SS in 2009 for eligibility purposes) is next at $72 and after that is Orlando Cabrera at $65.

The downside with Jeter is that because he's a superstar, it's likely you're going to pay a little bit extra for his name.

Derek Jeter 2007-2009
Year
$
Sal+/-AP
SW
2007
$28
$30-2$30
$31
2008
$22
$29-7$29
$29
2009
$34
$23+11$18
$23

Jeter was a $40+ earner in 2006, so his $30 average salary that year may, in fact, have been a little bit conservative. Nevertheless, he has been a loser two of the last three years.

I don't necessarily have a problem with Jeter (in fact, I owned him in my regular A.L. last year for $28), but you are going to pay for him until he's almost completely finished. You're paying for Jeter's reputation as much as you're paying for his stats; despite his relatively advanced age, I wouldn't be surprised to see him go for $26-28 again in start-over leagues.

There aren't many shortstops that have stayed at the position, in the league, or have been good enough to be in the Top 10 in salary from 2007-2009. But there have been a few others.


$
Sal+/-AP
SW
Michael Young '07
$27
$28-1$25
$28
Michael Young '08
$21
$23-2$23
$27
Michael Young '09
$24
$19+5$20
$23
Jhonny Peralta '07
$17
$14+3$11
$13
Jhonny Peralta '08
$21
$17+4$15
$16
Jhonny Peralta '09
$10
$22-12$16
$18
Orlando Cabrera '07
$26
$20+6$16
$17
Orlando Cabrera '08
$20
$20+1$15
$20
Orlando Cabrera '09
$19
$11+8$17
$11
Jason Bartlett '07
$15
$12+3$12
$12
Jason Bartlett '08
$16
$160$11
$15
Jason Bartlett '09
$28
$12+17$8
$11
Yuniesky Betancourt '07
$15
$12+3$8
$10
Yuniesky Betancourt '08$12
$14-2$11
$15
Yuniesky Betancourt '09$5
$9
-4
$8
$9

Including Jeter, these are the six A.L. shortstops that were in the 10 most expensive groupings for the last three years. As a result, you would expect this to be a pretty consistent group. However, I'm surprised at how consistent these guys have been.

You could also argue that most have them have been more consistent than Jeter (Not better, but more consistent). Young is as boring as toast. You would expect the market to overpay him a little bit for being a shortstop, but Young gets a pay cut in 2008 and 2009. As a result, the market looks smart in '08, dumb in '09.

In general, the market doesn't get excited about any of these guys, with the possible exception of Peralta. Almost everyone's salary stays pretty close to the prior year's earnings, with Cabrera, Bartlett and Betancourt taking some fairly decent pay cuts in 2009. Jeter's a good buy if all of the other shortstops are getting paid or rewarded for what they did the year before. If they aren't, then the buying opportunity isn't with Jeter but with the other shortstops on this list.

One of the best uses of salary scans is as a guide for what to pay this year. We often get wrapped up in a player's narrative, but sometimes last year's earnings are a better guide than this year's prognostications. Bartlett was a player I had identified as a potential bargain in '09 because he earned $16 in 128 games in 2008; a full season in 2009 meant a potential bargain. Jeter's certainly the best player at his position, but because he's such a sexy name, is typically not the best buy.

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