Tuesday, January 12, 2010

Grading the Crapshoot: A.L.

I continue to insist that outfield is the best place to shop for depth on offense, and Eugene continues to insist that I'm wrong.
I will continue to advocate that in a 12 team AL league outfield is the second shortest position after C on positional scarcity. 60 to be drafted out of 42 starters. The corners and middle infielders are 36/28. It's not a bad place to spend and make sure you get 5 starters. If you luck out with one of the $1-3 starters at 2B and SS like (Alberto) Callaspo, you do well at all of the positions.
How did it actually play out in the American League last year?

2009 A.L. $1-3 hitters by position
Position
$
Sal
+/-
C (15)
$33
$19+14
1B (6)
$7
$5+2
2B (6)
$32
$9+23
SS (6)
$56
$10+47
3B (5)
$14
$8+6
OF (16)
$53
$24+29
DH (2)
$4
$5-1

Very much the way Eugene says it did. Shortstops were the big winners by far. Outfielders were more profitable on the whole, but second basemen turned a $3.83 profit per player while outfielders only returned a measly $1.81 per player.

This, of course, has a lot to do with Callaspo, Ben Zobrist, and Maicer Izturis. The only other middle infielder to crack $5 in earnings last year who cost $3 or less was Brendan Harris. Six of the 16 OF represented above cracked $5, though only Willie Bloomquist earned double digits in 2009.

That's still a pretty impressive ROI in the middle infield.

One thing is certain. You can quibble over outfielders or middle infielders, but you definitely wanted to make sure to spend your money on corner infielders last year. If you settled on one of these cheap corner options, there's an excellent chance you got almost no stats for your trouble. Eight of the 11 players up there earned $2 or less; only Jose Bautista, Willie Aybar, and Daric Barton did better.

1 comment:

Roll2 said...

This might (and I emphasize might) be due to the way MLB teams make inseason starting lineup changes. I think they are much more like to fill from within the existing 25-man roster at MI than they are at OF, where they are more likely to bring up a minor leaguer, or make a trade. (Team defense considerations could play a role in this). Thus, the utility IF you take during dollar days may have a better shot at eventually starting than a teams' 4th OF you take to fill your fifth OF slot. I think if look back at a few years worth of data, the guys who earned major profits at MI were on their MLB team at the start of the season, and thus were more likely to be acquired during dollar days (the ones mentioned from '09 and guys like Scutaro and Punto a couple of season back come to mind). When you look at the OF profit centers, they were not taken at the auction, most likely because they were in the minors (Reimold last year, Span and Choo ini '08), or in the other league (Posednik in '09, R. Davis in '08). To me this means that at the positions where there are unlikely to be productive free agents, you need to concentrate your analysis on the existing player pool in order to find the gems. In the OF, where you should be able to find value out of the free agent pool, not so much.