The Chris Davis Phenomenon (i.e.: Stage II)

We all have short memories in Roto. Unless we own a huge bargain or bust, we often look more at production (or lack thereof) than we do at value.

It's easy to forget in the waning days of August that many of us - experts and non-experts alike - climbed the heights to try and grab a piece of the Chris Davis experience. The CBS Sportsline league paid $29 for him. They had a lot of silly prices, so at the time I didn't think much of it, but when LABR paid $25 I stood up and took notice. Then when the normally staid Tout Wars crowd paid $27, I knew that something crazy was going on here.

Stage 2.

Stage 1 was defined by Alex Patton as a time when leagues stopped overpaying for the superstars and started overpaying for the sexy rookies. The rationale made sense. If Grady Sizemore (I don't get a royalty every time I say his name...honest!) went for $50 and Mark Teixeira went for $45 and Justin Morneau went for $42, then there was a lot of money in the end to clean up. Typically, the biggest profits at the end came from the decent rookies who blossomed.

Part of the reason Stage 2 doesn't exist anymore is because we all know a lot more about valuation then we used to (I think the readers of Patton and this site know more, and some of the experts out there know less than I would expect, but that's a subject for another day). But a more significant reason is that we all know too much.

Which is what Stage 3 is.

And that's why Chris Davis is puzzling. I was excited about Davis, too...but I think I had my bid pegged at about $21 or $22. Even that seemed high to me, but I recognized the upside was about $25 and I wanted in on him at $21.

The $21 bid recognized the downside, though, and that's where I think the touts fell into Stage 2 madness with Davis.

Prorate his 2008 stats (295 AB, 17 HR, 55 RBI, 1 SB, .285 BA) across 550 AB and you had a $26 player. That's well and good, but Davis had a lot of perceived flaws in his game. He had a high whiff rate at AAA. Some thought he had a long swing or a hitch in his swing. At the very least, even if Davis was going to come out and whack 35 HR, many thought that he was going to take a hit in BA.

Scanning my average price lists, I don't see too many other Stage Two plays. Nelson Cruz for $24 in Tout Wars may have fit the bill. Same with Adam Jones at $22. But these aren't necessarily obvious examples.

So Davis may have been even more unique than a Stage Two play. He may have merely been a player the touts were infatuated with, forgot their own reservations, and leaped forward. Even touts make mistakes sometimes.