Looking Back at Inflation (on high priced hitters)

I'm not obsessed with Grady Sizemore. Just my readers are.

26 or 28, neither price was going to get Sizemore this year (even if Peter's projections turn out to be on the money). For our 5x5 AL only auction, with one team with an insurmountable freeze list, I tweaked the software to get Sizemore to $30 and was willing to bet on 40% inflation. He went (but not to me) for $51.50 (and not tot he one team that should/could have bought him, the best freeze team). That team later acquired him for Chris Davis and junk (in an early, early fire sale). But for the inflation I see in a number of leagues the discrepancy between software and projection $ values would not have caught my eye. Having used the software for lo these many years, and swearing by it, I just need, I guess, to accept the inflationary nature of the game.

NSH raises an interesting point, and one I've addressed before when talking about high bid prices versus inflation. It is nice, though, to see a real-life example of this idea.

If - like NSH - your raw price on Sizemore was $30 and your inflation rate was 40%, you probably weren't going to sniff Sizemore in most auctions, as that $42 inflation price tag would have barely been above what Sizemore actually earned in 2008. If you were spinning your inflation off of that number, you would have pegged Sizemore at $53 with 40% inflation.

And that's probably what NSH's opponent actually did. He pushed Sizemore to near inflation par, figured that Sizemore was worth $53 or so with inflation, and thought he was getting a bargain (I'll leave it to NSH to comment on the decimals).

We, of course, know the fallacy inherent in this calculation. At $51.50, Sizemore's not even going to be a par player unless he's Rickey Henderson circa 1986.

So that's a reason to curb your most optimistic projections for Sizemore - or any of the top hitters. In leagues with heavy inflation, you're guaranteeing yourself a loss if you simply bid with the inflation curve. Instead, take a couple of bucks off of the top hitters and redistribute this money all around the middle of the curve.