Most Valuable MR Free Agents 2009 (LIBL)
| # | Player | $ | Sal | +/- | '08 |
| 1 | Nick Masset | $21 | $0 | ||
| 2 | Ronald Belisario | $16 | |||
| 3 | Mitch Stetter | $15 | $4 | ||
| 4 | Pedro Feliciano | $14 | $1 | ||
| 5 | Arthur Rhodes | $12 | $8 | ||
| 6 | Jeff Fulchino | $12 | -$5 | ||
| 7 | Blake Badenhop | $10 | -$5 | ||
| 8 | Trever Miller | $10 | $3 | ||
| 9 | Sean Burnett | $9 | -$4 | ||
| 10 | Justin Miller | $9 | $2 | ||
| Average | $13 | $0 |
The salary column is comprised of the average salary from the CBS Sportsline, LABR, and Tout Wars expert leagues. In other words, not one of the 38 owners in these three leagues thought that any of these pitchers were worth even a $1 throw.
You could argue that my prices are for 4x4 and those three expert leagues are 5x5 (and your argument would be a fair one). OK...
Most Valuable MR Free Agents 2009 (LIBL w/5x5 $)
| # | Player | $ | Sal | +/- | '08 |
| 1 | Nick Masset | $16 | -$1 | ||
| 2 | Ronald Belisario | $14 | |||
| 3 | Mitch Stetter | $12 | $4 | ||
| 4 | Pedro Feliciano | $12 | $3 | ||
| 5 | Arthur Rhodes | $10 | $7 | ||
| 6 | Jeff Fulchino | $9 | -$3 | ||
| 7 | Blake Badenhop | $8 | -$2 | ||
| 8 | Trever Miller | $8 | $3 | ||
| 9 | Sean Burnett | $8 | -$1 | ||
| 10 | Justin Miller | $8 | $3 | ||
| Average | $11 | $1 |
Switching from 4x4 to 5x5 knocks these guys down a little bit, but it doesn't change the fact that if they keep it up, they'll be pretty valuable. If you told me tonight that I could add an $11 pitcher to the back end of my staff, I'd do it before you could take it back.
OK, you can also argue that it's not fair to expect the experts to be able to predict who these unpredictable pitchers will be in March (or, in the case of the Sportsline experts, February). So have they at least rectified their error come early July?
Most Valuable MR Free Agents 2009 (LIBL)
Expert League Ownership
| # | Player | $ | CBS | Tout |
| 1 | Nick Masset | $16 | Y | Y |
| 2 | Ronald Belisario | $14 | Y | R |
| 3 | Mitch Stetter | $12 | Y | Y |
| 4 | Pedro Feliciano | $12 | N | Y |
| 5 | Arthur Rhodes | $10 | Y | N |
| 6 | Jeff Fulchino | $9 | N | N |
| 7 | Blake Badenhop | $8 | R | -N |
| 8 | Trever Miller | $8 | N | N |
| 9 | Sean Burnett | $8 | N | N |
| 10 | Justin Miller | $8 | N | N |
LABR used to be fairly accessible on the Internet once the season started; now their strategy seems to be to try and disappear as soon as the season starts and be as inaccessible as possible. So I'm left looking at just CBS and Tout.
The top pitchers on this list were all picked up. But there are still a lot of opportunities to pick up stats that are being missed in 5x5 expert leagues because middle relievers aren't considered as valuable...this despite the fact that the average pitcher in 5x5 earns $9.40.
An $8 pitcher doesn't sound exciting, and I'm not suggesting that you quit your job, paint your face, and form the Jeff Fulchino Fan Club. However, if Fulchino keeps on track with what he's done so far, an $8 season would have made him the 80th best pitcher in 2008.
Interestingly, the 80th best pitcher in 2008 was Brian Moehler. Moehler was serviceable, yet hardly exciting. He tossed 150 IP, won 11 games, struck out 82 and put up a 4.56 ERA and a 1.347 WHIP. He earned $7.98 in 5x5.
The pitcher below him was Brian Shouse. Shouse won five, saved two, struck out 33, and put up 51 1/3 IP with a 2.81 ERA and a 1.169 ERA. He earned $7.94.
It's easy to look past this basic precept of Roto, but even in 5x5 relievers provide value. You might pick the wrong ones, but you should pick some based on past levels of performance.
And no cheating...that goes for you 5x5 owners as well.
2 comments:
I don't think anyone questions the value of middle relievers, even in 5X5. The problem, as you showed in a previous post, is that a MR's past performance is not any guarantee that he'll keep it up. (Not that this is true for any player, but I'd say it's especially true for MR and bench players, due to the small sample size of course).
Of your 10 best MR pre/post break, only Marmol was on both lists. If by some chance Heath Bell was available and you picked him up, you got treated to a 6.18 ERA in the 2nd half, and I don't think anyone would argue that he isn't one of the top pitchers on the 1st half list (in terms of skill).
So I can't really agree with your assessment that these players should be picked up ("So have they at least rectified their error come early July?"). When you're dealing with 30IP sample sizes, picking up the guys that got lucky can be a recipe for disaster. Even if you pick up the guys who ARE skilled, in the 2nd-half small sample size, they can just as easily be unlucky.
Masset, in particular, has been helped by an absurd .188 BABIP. He's going to fall back to earth, pretty hard (though for him, since is a fairly skilled pitcher, that might mean he'll put up 3.85 ERA in the 2nd half, and might be worth a buck or two).
I guess in general I would want to see about 2-3 seasons worth of stats before picking up a MR who I don't think has any chance of closing. Going off a half season, unless it's backed up by great peripherals, will usually hurt a lot more than it will help.
Our league is run through CBS Sportsline. I've set up my own set of custom stats based on BBHQ's LIMA plan to filter free agent pitchers. The stats include k/9, bb/9, k-bb, HRA, ERA, and WHIP, but not W or Sv. I sort by k-bb, then use some common sense to delineate between starters and relievers, as well as those pitchers who allow a lot of HR/IP.
Of the ten pitchers you listed, three are currently owned, but would be on the list if they were still free agents. Of the remaining seven, five show up among the first 30 pitchers sorted in this manner. Burnett is in the top 45 and Justin Miller is in the top 100. So it's not a bad way of paring down the options, looking beyond the basic 4x4 (or 5x5) stats to see who's really performing well.
Why no Dan Meyer?
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