Tuesday, June 30, 2009

MR Free Agents 2009 - A.L.

With about half a season in the books, I thought it'd be worth taking a look at a point Dr. Hibbert made earlier this year:
The list of non-sexy non-starters/non-closers who were both profitable AND available via free agency in my league last year is surprisingly long.
So who are these guys exactly?

Most Valuable MR Free Agents 2009 (BABG)
#
Player$Sal
+/-
'08
1Jim Johnson
$16

$10
2Lance Cormier
$15

-$0
3Danys Baez
$11


4
Phil Coke
$11

$5
5
R.A. Dickey
$10

-$6
6
Miguel Batista
$8$2
+6
-$19
7
Bobby Seay
$8

-$2
8
Darren Oliver
$8
$0+8
$12
9
Matt Herges
$7

-$4
10Justin Speier
$7

-$2

Average
$10$0+7
-$1

These guys all certainly fit the bill. They're unsexy, they're middle relievers and - thus far- they're getting results.

As I showed in my review of 2008 middle relievers, these guys do fluctuate a great deal from half to half. Keep in mind that the dollar values shown above are prorated assuming that these pitchers stay on the exact same pace over the course of an entire season. While it's possible that Jim Johnson will earn $16 this year, history tells us he's more likely to earn $10. Or maybe $8.

I think Dr. Hibbert's main point stands. There is money to be made on middle relievers in Roto. Furthermore, it's important to look past wins and saves when it comes to middle relievers, since they can earn a good deal of money in ERA/WHIP. The problem is that the smaller sample sizes make for larger and more unpredictable gaps between expected performance and actual performance, making it harder to look at Justin Speier's numbers to date and simply say, "He's for real."

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