At this point, there's little if any debate about the value of a good middle reliever. The best A.L. middle reliever earned $20 in 4x4 last year while the best N.L. MR earned $21.
Nor is there much debate about how fickle middle relievers are from season to season. Last year's best middle men were Grant Balfour and Carlos Marmol, and both are struggling mightily in 2009.
Since it's too late to go back and warn Balfour and Marmol owners not to buy Balfour and Marmol, I thought I'd look instead at who the top middle relievers were at the All Star Break in 2008 and how well they did or didn't hold up in the second half.
Top 10 A.L. Middle Relievers, Pre-All-Star 2008
| # | Player | AS $ | Sal | +/- | $ |
| 1 | J.P. Howell | $21 | $1 | +20 | $18 |
| 2 | Ron Mahay | $19 | $5 | ||
| 3 | Jim Johnson | $19 | $10 | ||
| 4 | Matt Thornton | $19 | $14 | ||
| 5 | Dan Wheeler | $18 | $2 | +16 | $20 |
| 6 | Scott Linebrink | $15 | $6 | ||
| 7 | Jose Arredondo | $15 | $19 | ||
| 8 | Scott Downs | $15 | $13 | ||
| 9 | Grant Balfour | $14 | $20 | ||
| 10 | Scot Shields | $14 | $3 | +10 | $12 |
| Average | $17 | $1 | +16 | $14 |
The "AS $" column is the earnings through the All-Star break adjusted to a full season's worth of earnings. In other words, if Howell had stayed on pace in all categories the rest of the way, he would have earned $21. The fact that he "only" earned $18 means that he tailed off a little bit in the second half, but not much.
In fact, this is a fairly predictable group of pitchers. Six of the top 10 middle relievers at season's end are on this list, and Wheeler doesn't qualify because he became the Rays closer by year's end. Linebrink and Mahay are huge disappointments, but if you hung on to these guys through the end of the season, you probably didn't get killed.
Would it have necessarily been easy to find their replacements?
Top 10 A.L. Middle Relievers, Post All-Star 2008
| # | Player | Post AS $ | Sal | +/- | Pre AS $ |
| 1 | Grant Balfour | $12 | $8 | ||
| 2 | Jesse Carlson | $12 | $5 | ||
| 3 | Joey Devine | $11 | $2 | +9 | $7 |
| 4 | Jose Arredondo | $11 | $9 | ||
| 5 | Darren Oliver | $10 | $3 | ||
| 6 | Frank Francisco | $9 | $2 | ||
| 7 | Manny Delcarmen | $9 | $1 | +8 | $0 |
| 8 | Roy Corcoran | $7 | $2 | ||
| 9 | Brandon League | $7 | -$2 | ||
| 10 | Rafael Perez | $7 | $3 | +4 | $3 |
| Average | $10 | $1 | +9 | $4 |
Since there were only an average of 67 games per major league team Post All-Star, it didn't make sense to pro-rate the formulas for those 67 games. Instead, I thought I'd look at how much those 67 games contributed to the total earnings versus how much the first 95 games mattered.
There's definitely a sharp break between the top four pitchers and the bottom six. Balfour, Carlson, Devine, and Arredondo all had solid Pre-All-Star numbers, while the bottom six pitchers seemed to come out of nowhere to post solid stats down the stretch.
One of the problems with middle relievers is that because they're so hard to identify, we often don't own them for their best outings. By the time someone picked up Corcoran in my league, it was too late for him to help. The same is true for Oliver. League wasn't even owned.
The other problem is that by the time these guys are identifiable, the contenders have already pieced together strong staffs - either through trades, FAAB, or farm systems. Digging yourself out of a 4.5 ERA and 1.4 WHIP hole is nearly impossible, and unless you hit on at least two stud middle relievers, you're not going to be able to do it.
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