Last week I wrote about National League middle relievers who were either "buy low" or "sell high" candidates. Tonight, I'll take a look at their American League counterparts.
Buy
Grant Balfour 39 1/3 IP, 3 W, 1 SV, 4.58 ERA. 1.40 WHIP, 40 K.
Balfour got roughed up a little bit last night, but he put up a 2.92 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP in the month of June. More importantly, he's improved his walk rate every month. Balfour's fastball/slider combo is devastating enough that if he can keep it in or close to the zone he's still hard to hit, even though he's predictable. He's not going to be the best middle reliever in the A.L. again this year, but he's going to be pretty good.
Jesse Carlson 39 2/3 IP, 1 W, 0 SV, 4.76 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 29 K.
Carlson was somewhat lucky last year, and this year it seems like he's given all of that luck back in spades. He has the same G/F rate he did in 2008, a lower LD %, and a much higher BABIP. Given the small sample size of the 30-35 IP Carlson is likely to pitch this year, there's obviously a possibility he could continue to struggle the rest of the way, but I wouldn't bet on it. His raw stuff is solid enough that a more reasonable expectation would be something like a 3.50 ERA with a 1.25 WHIP.
Juan Cruz 37 2/3 IP, 3 W, 2 SV, 4.30 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 28 K.
Cruz is on pace to earn $10 in 4x4, so he seems like a bit of an obvious buy, but a terrible stretch of six games between May 30 and June 18 saw Cruz allow 10 ER and 17 baserunners in six innings, causing many to simply kick him to the curb. He's definitely cured whatever ailed him and once again looks like a solid option behind Joakim Soria in Kansas City.
Brandon League 40 2/3 IP, 1 W, 0 SV, 5.31 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 37 K.
Like fellow Blue Jay Carlson, League has been a victim of some bad luck this year; his WHIP is virtually identical to what it was in 2008 and his ERA is a full three runs higher. His biggest problem is that his severe G/F rate from previous years has disappeared, but I believe League is good enough that he should overcome this. Unlike most of the pitchers on this list, I must admit that this call is more based on what I see on the mound than what I see in the numbers. League has tremendous stuff, and I think the K/BB rates are a sign that he's finally starting to trust it and is on the verge of putting it all together.
Russ Springer 30 1/3 IP, 0 W, 0 SV, 5.04 ERA, 1.81 WHIP, 36 K.
We all know that strikeouts aren't the sole barometer for future success, so Springer's 10.68 K/IP rate - while impressive - isn't the only reason he's listed here. Rather, it's his .428 BABIP that jumps out at you; Springer's simply been one of the unluckiest pitchers in the American League to date. He does run the risk of getting buried in a deep bullpen on a team that may look to get younger, but if he can hang on, I'd expect better results.
Sell
Matt Guerrier 38 1/3 IP, 4 W, 0 SV, 2.58 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 26 K.
Whether I look at the numbers or watch him on the small screen, nothing tells me that something's different about Matt Guerrier. He has a miniscule 211 BABIP and a great 86.7% strand rate that are a bad combination for continued success, at least at this level. He is walking fewer batters, so I think he's actually OK to hang on to, but don't expect the ERA to stay under three.
Joe Nelson 33 IP, 2 W, 2 SV, 4.36 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 32 K.
His numbers make him look like more of a buy candidate - and that's what more than a few touts have suggested - but Nelson is too inconsistent to recommend, and both J.P. Howell and Dan Wheeler have been solid enough to make me believe that Nelson won't do more than pick up the very rare save. His HR/IP rate is what frightens me the most; even if Nelson is going well on the whole, he has the potential to put up that 1/3 IP, 4 ER inning due to the propensity for the longball.
Darren O'Day 29 2/3 IP, 2 W, 1 SV, 1.21 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 29 K.
This isn't so much a true sell recommendation as it is a "don't expect a 1.21 ERA for the rest of the season." O'Day has a surreal 94.2% strand rate, a G/F rate of 1.00 and he pitches in Arlington. His deceptive delivery will fool hitters enough to make him a major league option for a long time, but he's probably going to have success along the lines of a Chad Bradford or a Brad Ziegler v.2009 rather than a Dan Quisenberry or a Ziegler v.2008.
Ramon Ramirez 37 IP, 5 W, 0 SV, 2.19 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 23 K.
It's rare to see someone specifically trade for a middle reliever, but it happened in my A.L.-only recently with Ramirez. His owner was wise to get off of the train - despite the obvious vulture opportunity. Ramirez is a flyball pitcher whose HR rate has spiked while somehow managing to post a surreal 197 BABIP that is nowhere in line with what he's done in his career. The Red Sox defense deserves a little credit, but not enough to justify those numbers. The low K/IP rate tells me that Ramirez is due to see some balls drop in in the second half.
Sean White 40 IP, 2 W, 1 SV, 2.70 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 18 K.
The dangerously low K/IP should tell you to stay away, but if that's not enough for you keep in mind that White's bread-and-butter is a sinker that increased in velocity from 90 MPH in 2007 to 93 MPH in 2009. That sounds great, but it's less about the velocity with White than it is the sink. When his sinker isn't moving, he has little else to rely on. Good line-ups are going to pound him, and he's going to face a lot of good line-ups pitching in the American League.
No comments:
Post a Comment