I think (or at least I did) in a 10 team AL 5x5 only league you need to come out of the auction with 3 arguably VG starters and two closers and at least a couple of flyers or solid 4 or 5 starters. While fringe starters come along (Tallet for example) the results are very low percentage as noted.Last year around this time I looked at the best free agent pitchers to date, so it's probably about time to repeat the exercise.
2009 Top 10 A.L. Free Agent Pitchers (through July 9)
| # | Player | $ | FAAB Bid | FAAB Date | '08 |
| 1 | Andrew Bailey | $33 | $3* | 4/6 | |
| 2 | Alfredo Aceves | $22 | $2 | 5/18 | $4 |
| 3 | Ricky Romero | $22 | $15 | 4/20 | |
| 4 | Jason Frasor | $20 | $6 | 4/13 | -$0 |
| 5 | Michael Wuertz | $20 | $1 | 4/13 | $1 |
| 6 | Scott Feldman | $19 | $2 | 5/18 | -$5 |
| 7 | Matt Guerrier | $19 | $1 | 4/27 | -$2 |
| 8 | Brad Bergesen | $19 | $8 | 4/27 | |
| 9 | Ramon Ramirez | $18 | $3* | 4/6 | $9 |
| 10 | Scott Richmond | $18 | $1 | 4/27 | $1 |
| Average | $21 | $4 | $1 |
This year's list has four starters on it compared to three from last season, though the top two starters last year - Gavin Floyd and Armando Galarraga - were a little bit better than Romero and Feldman have been to date.
And, once again, the pitchers on this list weren't particularly successful in 2008 (naturally; otherwise they probably would have been bought in the auction and/or made the big club.
One difference that I find striking is that while four pitchers from the 2008 list were picked up on in May or later, only two of 2009's Top 10 were available past May 1. The good relievers in particular are snatched up early; there is no 2009 version of Jim Johnson or Matt Thornton just sitting in the free agent pool.
I asked this question last year, and I'll ask it again: what bids have the success stories made?
Fourth place team (39.5 pitching points): Russ Springer (-$8), Jesse Crain (-$7), Aaron Laffey ($4), Sean Kelley ($1), Miguel Batista ($9), Mark Lowe ($4), Josh Outman ($16), Feldman, Rafael Betancourt ($4), Darren O'Day ($16), Sean White ($11), Grant Balfour ($6), Jim Johnson ($12).
Ninth place (36): Bailey ($33), Carl Pavano ($1), Joe Nelson ($3), Daniel Bard ($6), Derek Holland (-$7)
Third place (35.5): Ron Mahay (-$2), Brian Tallet (-$1), Springer (-$8), Jason Isringhausen ($1), Lowe ($4), Randy Choate ($12), Brandon Lyon ($9), Nelson ($3),
Unlike 2008, it's hard to argue against the impact for at least one of these teams.
The 4th place team in this league scored with Outman and Feldman. It is interesting to note though that only Balfour and Johnson remain on this team's active roster; Feldman was flipped in a deal for George Sherrill while most of these other arms were given a hearty handshake and sent on their way.
It's more important to note that the fourth place team's staff is anchored by Felix Hernandez ($40), and CC Sabathia ($28), while the third place team has been riding the unlikely trio of Edwin Jackson ($35), Mark Buehrle ($33), and Josh Beckett ($28). All of these pitchers were acquired at auction.
There's definitely something to be said for playing the FAAB wires. The team in fourth did it well, and has negated the horrible impact of Chien-Ming Wang by doing so (holding 22 of 24 points in ERA/WHIP as of this writing). However, without Felix and CC, his season would have ended back in April when the Indians were taking batting practice against Wang.
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