With a low IP minimum, 2-3 starters are all you need to draft--you can pick up extra innings along the way via FAAB or trade. I find that in most leagues not only are middle relievers VASTLY undervalued but also readily available in the free agent pool.I've specifically addressed this elsewhere, but with readership up about 25-30% from this time last year, I always like to revisit topics like this for the newer members of my audience.
This winter, I took a look at the free loot amongst American League and National League pitchers in 2008. These were the starting pitchers that the three premier Rotisserie "expert" leagues - CBS Sportsline, LABR, and Tout Wars - all took a pass on. The results weren't pretty. While there certainly were a lot of $10+ pitchers floating around in the free agent pool, only one - Armando Galarraga - was a starting pitcher.
The National League picture was a little prettier. Four of the 10 best "free loot" pitchers were starters. But they were greatly aided by the trades of CC Sabathia and Rich Harden into the league. It's nice that this happened, but that is atypical - and probably not what Dr. Hibbert is talking about when he talks about pitchers who are just sitting there in the free agent pool.
I've also looked at free agent pick-ups in an actual American League. This added two more starting pitchers (Gavin Floyd and Greg Smith) to the list (this was a list of value through mid-July, which is why Smith was included here) but it was still a significantly reliever-heavy population.
"So what?" you're probably saying. "Isn't Dr. Hibbert's point that you can win by plugging in good relievers?"
The data from the linked article seems to indicate that this isn't so. Winning teams and teams in the money tend to acquire the pitchers - and the innings - that they need at the auction or through trades. Dumping has something to do with this, but for the most part teams that win don't rely too much on middle relievers they've plucked from the free agent pool.
This has less to do with the value of starters versus relievers but with the scarcity of good pitching in a deep Rotisserie league's free agent pool. In the American League last year, only 16 free agent pitchers earned $10 or more in 4x4 (Alex Patton actually has that number a little lower). In the National League, 21 free agent pitchers earned $10 or more.
This sounds pretty good...until you realize that there are 11 or 12 other teams bidding against you, there are many more than 16 or 21 pitchers available via free agency during the season, and that you probably are only going to get two or three of these pitchers - at best.
If all three of these pitchers are relievers and you FAAB 140-150 innings, that's still only a 14-15% chunk of your innings in a league with a 1,000 IP requirement. You still need to get 85% of your innings from the core of your staff - a core you're likely going to have to acquire via trades or auction.
In the N.L. last year, pitchers bought at auction earned $1,019. Free agent pitchers only earned $113. This includes pitchers with negative earnings, but that's only fair; we picked a lot of these negative earners up in our never ending search for the next Todd Wellemeyer.
The A.L. picture was even worse. Pitchers bought at auction earned $919, while free agents earned $30. That's not quite the difference between CC Sabathia and Rich Harden but it does account for a lot of that difference.
You probably didn't take a shot on Luis Mendoza. But I'll bet someone took a shot on Garret Olson (three owners in my league did at one time), Sean Gallagher (yup), or even Steve Trachsel (ew, but yes).
I think it's possible to use free agent pitchers to augment a winning pitching strategy. But in a deep league, you'd better walk out of your auction with the foundation of the pitching staff you're going to win with.
2 comments:
I didn't mean to imply that if you crap out at the draft you can build a reasonable staff through the free agent pool. Sure, every year there are starters who prove to be valuable had via FAAB, but this is the exception rather than the rule. I think what I was getting at is rather than plunking down for 4-6 starters, limit your risk with 2-3 and stock up on the traditionally undervalued commodity (middle relievers/set-up men). clearly this is dependent on your league's IP requirement. The list of non-sexy non-starters/non-closers who were both profitable AND available via free agency in my league last year is surprisingly long.
Reading this with great interest. I think (or at least I did) in a 10 team AL 5x5 only league you need to come out of the auction with 3 arguably VG starters and two closers and at least a couple of flyers or solid 4 or 5 starters. While fringe starters come along (Tallet for example) the results are very low percentage as noted. As it turns out, my best pitcher might be from my reserve list (we draft 17 reserve) like Richmond. currently over 6 ERA and 1.6 WHIP with Liriano, Slowey, Danks, Wang.
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