about 7 years ago I was involved in the startup of a NL 5x5 keeper league, 12 teams with a 7-man reserve. The guy who won punted wins and K's....he told another owner, who...played in expert leagues, what he was doing, and the response was that it was impossible to win doing so in 5x5.First of all, is it possible to dump two categories in win in 5x5?
History says yes.
Tout Wars has incorporated a 5x5 format for the last eight years so we have plenty of data to look at when it comes to how many points it takes to win a 5x5 league.
In their American League format, an eight category strategy carried out to perfection would have been good for 98 points. This would have won you the league six out of eight years, and put you within a hair of first place in 2007 and 2008.
In the National League, an optimal eight category strategy would have won you the league outright six times and allowed you to tie for 1st once. Only in 2008 would 106 points be too little to win the league.
So, yes, it is possible to win a competitive league with a two category dump. The question is: do dumping wins and strikeouts together work?
In a league with a 1,000 IP minimum requirement, I'd imagine that the idea would be similar to what I've advocated in 4x4: buy three starting pitchers, preferably with one ace SP, and six relievers.
The problem in 5x5 is that you're adding an extra pitching category so you need to win not only ERA/WHIP but also saves. So you'll either wind up spending a lot of money on your top closers or spending $35-45 on three bottom of the barrel closers.
If you're going to sweep offense, that means that you're probably going to have to go really cheap on your 2-3 starting pitchers. And since you're throwing away strikeouts, you'll want to avoid buying someone you might strike too many guys out, since you'll be paying for those in auction as well.
The biggest dilemma when it comes to dumping categories is making sure that you're not accidentally spending money on one of the categories that you're dumping. Since you'll automatically wind up spending money on wins/strikeouts every time you buy a starter, you're already behind the 8-ball in terms of maximizing your auction dollars.
If I were going to try this in a 5x5, I'd try to buy an ace for $25 who contributed more in ERA/WHIP and not so much in strikeouts. Roy Halladay would be ideal in the A.L.; I can't think of someone who jumps out in the N.L. I'd then buy my two closers for a combined $25-30 and go dollar derby on the rest of my pitching staff. That would leave me with $200 to spend on offense.
Could the strategy work? Sure, it could. But you'd need to get lucky with one of your other non-ace starting pitchers and hope that one of your $1 middle relievers turned into a closer later on so you could flip him for more offense.
But I agree with anonymous. It could work, simply because any two-category dump can work in a competitive league if it's executed correctly.
3 comments:
In a 5X5 league with an IP requirement, I think it's nearly impossible without a lot of luck.
There's just no way you're going to get enough starters to put you over the limit that won't at least cost you a few points in ERA/WHIP.
If you buy 2 top-tier closers, there's your whole pitching budget right there, and then some. If you buy bottom-tier closers, your ERA/WHIP will again suffer.
I don't really see it happening. If there is not IP requirement, sure - you could go with a top closer, a mid-tier guy, and 7 MR, hopefully for about $50. But even then, with the unpredictability of MR, things will have to break right for you.
I think if I had to dump at least one category, it would be steals. It's definitely the most straightforward category to dump. Of course, like you said, you're depleting the hitter pool for yourself, because you cannot buy anyone projected to steal any more than a handful of bases.
This strategy can't possibly work. You are proposing to spend enough pitching money to land a Roy Halladay and a couple of closers. Even assuming Doc stays healthy and the closers perform as expected (probably no better than a 50% chance), you still have to to dominate all 5 hitting categories - but you couldn't possibly have enough money left to achieve that objective.
The assumption that this strategy cannot work is based upon the auction. Do not forget that strategies do not end at the auction; they continue throughout the season. You can build this strategy in any number of ways: go heavy on offense and trade for pitching (second ace; closer #2; etc.); go heavy on pitching and trade for offense; etc. and so on. 8 category strategies work in 5x5, but as Mike said, you need a lot of things to go right.
In a keeper league, it is even easier. If you have a cheap ace or a cheap closer, you are part of the way there. If you have enough value, you play it straight. If you do not have much other value, an 8 category strategy is not the worst idea.
Keep in mind this as well...it is harder to budget for 10 categories than it is to budget for 8.
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