Brett espouses the same philosophy that I do when it comes to overpaying superstars.
if guys like Braun or Sizemore are going in the $50s (without inflation), that's just insane. The bargains are going to be on $25-30 players, and you'll have no trouble filling out your roster.According to Alex Patton's Evaluator tool, Sizemore earned $38 in 4x4 last year. If you paid $50 on the nose for him, you would have taken a $12 loss.
So that should be the end of it, right? What's the benefit of paying way much more for a superstar than what he's worth - or can even possibly earn?
It has been argued that there is more risk at the bottom of the player pool than there is at the top. Eric at Fake Teams made this argument back in 2008 (addressing one of my posts directly):
Based on experience, these drafters know Alex Rodriguez for $3 more dollars helps their offense more than making sure they get fair expected value across the board. And those extra dollars of value a true believer gets at the end of the draft (Yeah, I have a $4 Jeff Mathis for a $1!) do not make a real-life difference.Who is right: Brett or Fake Teams?
A.L. Hitters Bids vs. Earnings 2008
| AVG $ | AVG SAL | +/- | |
| Tier #1 | $30 | $35 | -5 |
| Tier #2 | $20 | $27 | -7 |
| Tier #3 | $19 | $22 | -3 |
| Tier #4 | $18 | $19 | -1 |
| Tier #5 | $18 | $16 | 1 |
| Tier #6 | $16 | $14 | 3 |
| Tier #7 | $12 | $12 | 0 |
| Tier #8 | $11 | $10 | 0 |
| Tier #9 | $7 | $8 | -1 |
| Tier #10 | $9 | $6 | 3 |
| Tier #11 | $10 | $4 | 6 |
| Tier #12 | $5 | $2 | 3 |
| Tier #13 | $4 | $2 | 2 |
| Tier #14 | $4 | $1 | 3 |
| Totals | $2,204 | $2,133 | 71 |
N.L. Hitters Bids vs. Earnings 2008
| AVG $ | AVG SAL | +/- | |
| Tier #1 | $32 | $38 | -5 |
| Tier #2 | $24 | $29 | -4 |
| Tier #3 | $16 | $24 | -8 |
| Tier #4 | $18 | $18 | 0 |
| Tier #5 | $12 | $15 | -3 |
| Tier #6 | $18 | $13 | 5 |
| Tier #7 | $10 | $11 | -1 |
| Tier #8 | $9 | $7 | 1 |
| Tier #9 | $8 | $6 | 2 |
| Tier #10 | $8 | $4 | 4 |
| Tier #11 | $6 | $3 | 3 |
| Tier #12 | $6 | $2 | 4 |
| Tier #13 | $6 | $1 | 5 |
| Tier #14 | $7 | $0 | 7 |
| Totals | $2,354 | $2,228 | 124 |
I ran these charts this past winter, but they're worth looking at again, because it seems that a significant portion of the Rotisserie Baseball universe is gravitating back toward overpaying for stud hitters. I think there are times when it might be OK to do this, but generally speaking the numbers don't bear this out. I know that I sound like a broken record on this topic and am not covering any new ground here but it bears repeating.
Paying $1-2 more for Sizemore or Braun might make some sense, since there's more variability at the bottom of the pile and keeping $4-5 to spend on a $7-8 player when your $1-2 bid might also net a $7-8 player makes a little sense. Paying $12 more is a formula for losing. All of your profits in the endgame are going to be sucked out of your team by your superstar and at best you're going to wind up with a middle of the pack team.
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