I have read opinions to the effect that it can be ok to overpay for the premium hitters because it can be considered like insurance and even though they don't return full value they do return a very large percent of the investment.I ran through the 10 most expensive hitters in the National League and the American League earlier this winter, and you can read some of my observations by following the links. The N.L. hitters lost $4 per player while the A.L. hitters lost $5 per player. But it's probably more useful to look at these players in groups of 12 or 13.
A.L. Hitters Bids vs. Earnings 2008
| AVG $ | AVG SAL | +/- | |
| Tier #1 | $30 | $35 | -5 |
| Tier #2 | $20 | $27 | -7 |
| Tier #3 | $19 | $22 | -3 |
| Tier #4 | $18 | $19 | -1 |
| Tier #5 | $18 | $16 | 1 |
| Tier #6 | $16 | $14 | 3 |
| Tier #7 | $12 | $12 | 0 |
| Tier #8 | $11 | $10 | 0 |
| Tier #9 | $7 | $8 | -1 |
| Tier #10 | $9 | $6 | 3 |
| Tier #11 | $10 | $4 | 6 |
| Tier #12 | $5 | $2 | 3 |
| Tier #13 | $4 | $2 | 2 |
| Tier #14 | $4 | $1 | 3 |
| Totals | $2,204 | $2,133 | 71 |
If your first reaction to this chart is that players who cost $2,133 earned $2,133 and not $2,204, move to the front of the class. However, the Patton formulas calculate $2,184 worth of offense and my formula uses my American League as a baseline. If I had plugged in the expert league prices from CBS Sportsline, LABR, and Tout Wars, I would have come up with $2,184 as well. Technically, though, if 168 hitters cost $2,133, they earned $2,133.
I have to admit that I was a little surprised by this chart. I've always parroted the idea that spending big on a couple of stars was a good idea, even if you were taking a small loss. After all, getting an 86% return (30/35) on your Roto dollar is better than the 74% ROI owners are getting on the next best 12 hitters.
However, the 12 most expensive hitters in 2008 offered the second worst rate of return on owners' investment. Starting with the fifth tier of hitters (#49-60 based on salary), almost all of these groups of hitters break even or turn a profit.
If you were spending $175-180 on your offense last year in one of the expert leagues, you probably could have filled in a decent core of players in the $15-20 range and then tested your luck in the endgame, where there were bargains aplenty.
N.L. Hitters Bids vs. Earnings 2008
| AVG $ | AVG SAL | +/- | |
| Tier #1 | $32 | $38 | -5 |
| Tier #2 | $24 | $29 | -4 |
| Tier #3 | $16 | $24 | -8 |
| Tier #4 | $18 | $18 | 0 |
| Tier #5 | $12 | $15 | -3 |
| Tier #6 | $18 | $13 | 5 |
| Tier #7 | $10 | $11 | -1 |
| Tier #8 | $9 | $7 | 1 |
| Tier #9 | $8 | $6 | 2 |
| Tier #10 | $8 | $4 | 4 |
| Tier #11 | $6 | $3 | 3 |
| Tier #12 | $6 | $2 | 4 |
| Tier #13 | $6 | $1 | 5 |
| Tier #14 | $7 | $0 | 7 |
| Totals | $2,354 | $2,228 | 124 |
The results in the National League aren't very different. The 13 most expensive hitters provide the fourth worst ROI, with only the second, third, and fifth most expensive hitters doing worse. It would have been a little tougher in the N.L. last year to buy an ugly team of grinders and hope to finish well on offense, but since the $18 group of hitters broke even in 2008, it wouldn't have been impossible.
So while the jury cannot be out based on one year's worth of data, last year did not prove kind to the idea of buying a superstar and hoping for the best.
1 comment:
What do the numbers say for pitching?
I'm trying to decide whether to keep some pitchers at par-value, since my keeper hitters are pretty bad. It goes against everything that I believe, but keeping some at-par pitchers might be my only way for me to compete this season.
Post a Comment