Buy Low/Sell High: Middle Relievers (N.L.)

I didn't think my series on middle relievers would generate such interest, but since most fantasy web sites say or imply that they're nearly worthless, I shouldn't be surprised.

Anonymous asks:

Since MRs tend to be so uneven from the first to the second half, who are some sell-high, buy-low candidates? I'm in an NL-only.

Provided below is what is an admittedly abbreviated list. Since a vast majority of free agents in deep leagues are middle relievers, one person's trash is another's treasure, so keep in mind that these are my recommendations; you might have your own opinions based on how you view these pitchers.

The other caveat is that I'm not recommending any of these pitchers based on their chances of getting wins or saves. I'm simply looking at ERA, WHIP and (to a lesser degree) strikeouts for you 5x5 owners.

Buy
Jared Burton 33 2/3 IP, 0 W, 0 SV, 4.81 ERA, 1.63 WHIP, 25 K
Because of the 4.54 BB/9, Burton's a borderline buy low guy. However, after a poor April and May, he turned it around in June, posting a 2.19 ERA with a 1.3 WHIP. The K rate is solid, and Burton's kept the ball in the yard this year (1 HR allowed). His .346 BABIP tells me that he's been somewhat unlucky.

Juan Gutierrez 38 2/3 IP, 1 W, 1 SV, 4.66 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 42 K
Gutierrez's line isn't good, but most of that line comes due to a three game stretch last month where he was absolutely stinky (2 1/3 IP, 9 H, 3 BB, 9 ER). Take that awful streak out and Gutierrez has been pretty dominant most of the year. He might not save any games this year, but he should provide value - particularly in 5x5 K leagues. The one thing to watch out for is that he's a flyball pitcher whose HR/FB % is abnormally low.

Joel Hanrahan 34 2/3 IP, 0 w, 5 SV, 7.79 ERA, 1.99 WHIP, 38 K
If you don't want to take this recommendation, I don't blame you. However, Hanrahan's got over a K per inning, his .460 BABIP has nowhere to go but down, and he's removed from the constant pressure cooker of a situation that Manny Acta had created in Washington with his "Who's Closing for Me Now?" game show. I don't expect Hanrahan to be a world beater, but if he wound up throwing up a 4.00 ERA with a 1.3 WHIP and maintaining a whiff an inning I wouldn't be surprised.

Chan Ho Park 55 1/3 IP, 3 W, 0 SV, 5.86 ERA, 1.61 WHIP, 46 K
Having paid $21 for Park prior to his ill-fated 2002 campaign with Texas, I never thought he'd be useful for anything outside of a scary campfire story to my kids, who I presume will someday be Rotisserie addicts like me. But after getting boxed around as a starter, Park has quietly put up some solid numbers out of the pen for the Phillies, with a 3.68 ERA and a .264 BAA as a reliever. His higher K/IP numbers make me think that Park allows himself some extra oomph when he knows he's only going to be in there for a inning or two, making him tougher to hit. I wouldn't want to count on him, but he's a fine addition as your last active pitcher.

Bobby Parnell 30 1/3 IP, 2 w, 0 SV, 5.04 ERA, 1.88 WHIP, 25 K
Parnell's a tough guy to recommend because - unlike most of the pitchers on this list - his numbers are headed in the wrong direction. A 13.50 ERA and a 3 WHIP in June scream "Stay Away!" However, it's hard to overlook Parnell's decent K/9 and HR/9 ratios, and looking at his 398 BABIP makes me think that he's got nowhere to go but up. Citi Field is also a favorable venue for Parnell. This is the riskiest buy recommendation in this entire group, but Parnell is definitely a candidate to improve.

Sell/Don't Buy
Kyle McClellan 37 IP, 2 w, 1 SV, 2.92 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 28 K
An overriding theme with most of these sell pitchers isn't that they're bad, just that they're not as good as their numbers to date. McClellan stuff is OK, but unless he's throwing up a G/F of 2.0 or better (he isn't), his peripherals simply don't support an ERA under three.

Evan Meek 29 2/3 IP, 0 W, 0 SV, 2.73 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 18 K
Meek's success comes from getting hitters to pound the ball into the ground, but more walks than whiffs and an extremely favorable BABIP of 206 make for an awful combination. I doubt most would consider picking him up for the BB/IP ratio alone, but if you are, don't.

Justin Miller 33 1/3 IP, 1 w, 0 SV, 2.16 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 20 K
Of the top performing middle relievers to date, regular reader Brett thinks that Nick Masset is the guy who is due for a Post All-Star fall, but my money's on this guy. His 93% strand rate is absurdly good while his HR/9 is pedestrian, making me think that the long flies Miller gives up in the second half could be more costly than the ones he's given up thus far. Miller does have better career K rates, so if he does start generating more punch outs, the correction might not be as severe.

Renyel Pinto 28 2/3 IP, 3 W, 0 SV, 3.14 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, 26 K
Pinto is a case where the gaudy K/IP numbers and the talk of him as a sleeper closer candidate make him seem more valuable than he actually is. The walk rate is too high and when you combine this with his severe G/F rate, Pinto seems lucky to have served up only two dingers this year. That ERA is going to catch up with that WHIP in the second half.

David Weathers 27 1/3 IP, 0 W, 1 SV, 2.63 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 17 K
Weathers is a pitcher who I don't expect to collapse but who I don't expect to post numbers this strong going forward. His 221 BABIP compares extremely favorably to his 310 career rate and his K/9 don't really support the dominance that Weathers has exhibited thus far.