Friday, September 19, 2008

I Owe You Guys Some Posts (Bobby Abreu)

Or not. I could take the route of Rotoworld and turn this from the Daily Dose to the non-Daily Dose, or shamelessly plug my fantasy football team in my baseball column (except I don't have a fantasy football team. I like popping open a few cold ones and watching a football game, but don't have the slightest interest in fantasy football after one year being bored stiff playing it).

But I decided to start taking a look back at this winter.

Rotoman's Fantasy Baseball Guide is one of the best off-season magazines on the market. Take that recommendation with a grain of salt; all of these magazines are outdated by the time you start making trades in mid-February, let alone when you sit down to auction in early April. However, the magazine has over 20 experts who offer picks and pans on various players, along with witty commentary. I thought I'd start peeling the onion and looking at who was picked and panned in the magazine, compare this to my comments this winter, and see how we did.

Bobby Abreu. Patton Pick: Hit .305 and 11 of his homers in the second half. Slugged .274 in the month of May, when Yankees Nation - no to mention a certain segment of Rotisserie Nation - was in full panic mode. While there's no question his best years are in the rear-view mirror, he's tough enough and has enough talent left to keep on trucking.
(Craig Brown, Heater Magazine) Pan: That's the third consecutive year of falling SLG and his OBP and BA were career lows. To say he's declining would be an understatement. Sure his runs and RBI are still healthy (and he plays for an offensive powerhouse) but as hie percentages continue to shrink, so will his counting stats. If you must have him, just make sure you don't overpay.
(John Menna, Wiseguy Baseball) Pan: At 34, the years are adding up while the numbers are dropping. A fine 2nd half disguised a bad first half. Abreu will still go for big money at draft time. A bad deal at this point with his power/speed figures in decline.
What I said:
Abreu...had his worst full season of his career last year, and will be 34 years old this season. He's not washed up by any means, and his strong second half probably indicates that a bit of a bounce back season is likely, but he can't be counted on to automatically hit .300 anymore. The runs opportunity in New York does add value.

What happened: Abreu has most definitely entered a new phase of his career. The steals once again dropped, and while he did improve his OPS, it was his third year in a row in the sub-900 range. I think Brown and Menna weren't necessarily saying not to buy, they were saying to keep your price - and your expectations - reasonable. I said the same thing, though was a little more wishy-washy about it. If you paid in the high $20s in a start-up league, you couldn't complain, though.


T.J. said...

Excellent idea. I look forward to reading these from time to time over the winter.

I've played fantasy football for about a decade. It's far more frustrating than Roto: only 15-20 "games," trying to guess which players to start. I'll take Roto, but I still enjoy fantasy football.

I'm running for North Carolina State House!

Anonymous said...

Thanks for making this such a great site. I appreciate your work.

Mike Gianella said...

Good luck t.j.!