Looking Back: Rocco Baldelli

Continuing my look back at projections from this winter, I thought I'd look at Rocco Baldelli.

These comments won't surprise you.

GREY (Jason Grey, MLB.com/SI.com) PAN: He might be a popular "value" play in some leagues, but his track record is like Chris Snelling's.
WINICK (Jeff Winick, expert player) PAN: A mysterious leg injury that just won't heal and a body that finds one way after another to break down. Do what Rocco can't and RUN away.
LOMBARDO (Roto Maniac) PAN: Should change his first name to Chalko. The offensive equivalent of Mark Prior. Only worth a bid if is given the FT DH job. Otherwise, pass.

What I said: Baldelli makes (Josh) Hamilton look like a safe pick. AB for AB, Baldelli's an incredible earner over the course of his career, but there's the rub: he's been on the DL more times the last two years than Super Dave Osborne. I like this price better in a freeze league where you've got weak freezes and need to take a risk.

What happened: The panel was dead on. Baldelli started the year on the DL, wasn't activated until August 11, and has only put up 62 AB to date.

Why would I include Baldelli on this list? Wasn't supressing his price a no-brainer?

It should have been. But the experts in the Sportsline league paid $16 for him, the LABR experts paid $8.

Part of this was definitely tied back to how early these auctions were. But, early or no, $16???

It's a simple lesson, but it does pay to remember that guys like Baldelli should be fliers only. Eight dollars could be OK, depending on how strong or weak your team is, and how much risk you want to assume. Sixteen dollars is way too much for a guy who almost never stays healthy.