In that post, I analyzed the Top 10 Free Agent hitters and pitchers from each league, based on dollar values in 4x4 leagues and came up with these charts.
Top 10 Free Agent Pitchers, 2007, N.L.
| Rank | Player | $ | Cost | +/- | 2006 |
| 1 | Manny Corpas | $27 | $2 | ||
| 2 | Heath Bell | $23 | -$4 | ||
| 3 | Peter Moylan | $20 | -$1 | ||
| 4 | Russ Springer | $19 | $7 | ||
| 5 | Carlos Marmol | $18 | -$7 | ||
| 6 | Ryan Franklin | $14 | $2 | ||
| 7 | Tony Pena | $14 | $1 | ||
| 8 | Lee Gardner | $13 | |||
| 9 | Kyle Kendrick | $12 | |||
| 10 | Yovani Gallardo | $12 | |||
| Average | $17 | $0 |
Top 10 Free Agent Pitchers, 2007, A.L.
| Rank | Player | $ | Cost | +/- | 2006 |
| 1 | Joakim Soria | $24 | |||
| 2 | Joaquin Benoit | $18 | -$1 | ||
| 3 | Brian Bannister | $17 | $1 | ||
| 4 | Hideki Okajima | $17 | |||
| 5 | Dustin McGowan | $16 | -$8 | ||
| 6 | Matt Guerrier | $15 | $3 | ||
| 7 | Shawn Marcum | $15 | -$4 | ||
| 8 | Jeremy Guthrie | $15 | -$5 | ||
| 9 | C.J. Wilson | $15 | $4 | ||
| 10 | Rafael Perez | $14 | $0 | ||
| Average | $17 | -$1 |
These were the Top 10 free agent pitchers who weren't auctioned in Tout Wars or LABR's expert auctions in 2007 in both the American League and the National League. Out of the 20 pitchers on these lists, only six were starting pitchers and 14 were relievers.
So, in theory, you can get more out of a starting pitcher who throws seven shutout innings than a reliever who throws up three or four shutout innings in a week. In practice, the odds of picking up a starter who will throw those seven shutout innings in a week are far less than grabbing that reliever who throws up those 3-4 shutout innings.
Can you still get one of these guys this year, though?
Top 10 Free Agent Pitchers, 2007, N.L. (w/FAAB info)
| Rank | Player | $ | FAAB Bid | Date | 2006 |
| 1 | Manny Corpas | $27 | $1 | 4/24 | $2 |
| 2 | Heath Bell | $23 | $1 | 4/17 | -$4 |
| 3 | Peter Moylan | $20 | -$1 | ||
| 4 | Russ Springer | $19 | $1 | 7/9 | $7 |
| 5 | Carlos Marmol | $18 | $2 | 5/21 | -$7 |
| 6 | Ryan Franklin | $14 | $1 | 6/25 | $2 |
| 7 | Tony Pena | $14 | $1 | 5/7 | $1 |
| 8 | Lee Gardner | $13 | |||
| 9 | Kyle Kendrick | $12 | $2 | 7/16 | |
| 10 | Yovani Gallardo | $12 | N/A | N/A | |
| Average | $17 | $0 |
Top 10 Free Agent Pitchers, 2007, A.L.
| Rank | Player | $ | FAAB Bid | Date | 2006 |
| 1 | Joakim Soria | $24 | $20 | 4/15 | |
| 2 | Joaquin Benoit | $18 | $1 | 6/11 | -$1 |
| 3 | Brian Bannister | $17 | $1 | 5/28 | $1 |
| 4 | Hideki Okajima | $17 | $3 | 4/8 | |
| 5 | Dustin McGowan | $16 | $1 | 5/7 | -$8 |
| 6 | Matt Guerrier | $15 | $2 | 4/30 | $3 |
| 7 | Shawn Marcum | $15 | $5 | 4/15 | -$4 |
| 8 | Jeremy Guthrie | $15 | $6 | 5/14 | -$5 |
| 9 | C.J. Wilson | $15 | $6 | 8/6 | $4 |
| 10 | Rafael Perez | $14 | $1 | 6/18 | $0 |
| Average | $17 | -$1 |
Probably not. Fifteen out of these 20 pitchers were picked up in June or earlier. Only five were picked up in July or later...if at all.
And knowing a pitcher was successful in hindsight doesn't really do you a lot of good now. The bids in the N.L., in particular, are conservative for a reason. Peter Moylan probably should have been picked up in the N.L. Roto league whose FAAB bids I track, but wasn't. Lee Gardner was a less obvious case for acquistion but he, too, was unowned.
Even now, any schmuck with an Internet connection and a browser can tell you that Jim Johnson is a valuable reliever. But did you think he'd be this valuable for this long? More importantly, do you think he'll keep up his .200 BABIP all year long?
It's true you can grab a lot of value from middle relievers. But by the time you identify the ones who will be the valuable ones, they've already been snatched up. Or it's too late.
2 comments:
After reading this post, I must say that I’m still convinced that a reliever strategy is the best way to go. For the first time, I went against your advice and decided to bulk up my middle relievers and ditched some starters.
In my previous post about my pitching woes, I didn’t sufficiently explain my category ranks, which I think would have made your advice to me a bit different.
--As of Wednesday, I have a 4.21 ERA (seventh place), which puts me .13 ERA points within third place.
--I have a 1.35 WHIP (fourth place), which is .05 points from second place.
--I have -16 wins (tied for 10th place in W-L), but I’m plus-eight wins from ninth place.
--I have seven saves (11th place) with no closer, but I’m eight saves from 10th place.
--I have only 484 Ks (11th place), which is 50 more than last place but 120 Ks from 10th place.
--I have 94 holds (first place).
So, as you see here, I’m within striking distance of moving way up in ERA and WHIP (as difficult as that is) but I’m nowhere near moving up in every other category. Because of this, I traded Josh Banks and Anibal Sanchez to a rebuilding team for Duaner Sanchez and Russ Springer. Both guys carry ERAs lower than mine and will give me significant help in WHIP (at least, more than most NL starters will give me). As for starters, I have Cain, Maddux, McClung and Josh Johnson. I plan to spot-start McClung and Johnson during the second-half.
Fortunately, my offense has been great. I’m in second place overall.
I think I’m making the right decision, but do you see any possible errors in this?
I think it is fairly easy to revamp a pitching staff if you aren't worried about wins or saves. Take two decent middle relievers and replace two bad starters. It will often help ERA/WHIP, especially if the categories are close and the starters dropped are bad.
Week after week, I click on the free agent pitchers in my 12 team AL league and sort by strikeouts. I look for nearly a k per ip and better than 2:1 k/bb. There are always a couple of guys that I could take for ERA/WHIP if I needed to protect in those categories.
Even now, I'm thinking of grabbing Frank Francisco. Edwar Ramirez and Craig Breslow also look like OK options.
I already picked up Grant Balfour, Jose Arredondo and Jose Veras based on major and minor league numbers (again, k/bb and k/ip).
Possible bonus: Balfour may end up as a closer this year and Arredondo could be one next season.
Post a Comment