Dallas Braden

Rafi wants to know:

any thoughts on dallas braden?

For the second year in a row, Braden's put up dynamite numbers at AAA Sacramento. The rate stats point to a guy who should be successful as a #4 or #5 starting pitcher in the bigs. He's whiffed over a batter an inning in 117 1/3 IP at that level between this year and last year, doesn't walk a lot of guys, and you'd think based on his minor league numbers that he should be a more highly regarded prospect. His profile looks similar to Kevin Slowey's.

Yet Braden hasn't rated as a Top 20 A's prospect by John Sickels in any of his lists.

Why not?

For one, while Slowey's fastball comes in at an average of 90 MPH, Braden's clocks in at about 87 MPH. He's a junkballer who works off of his change, but unlike someone like Slowey or James Shields, doesn't really have enough of a heater to expect a lot of success in the bigs. Braden fits in with the description of a Quad-A guy: someone who knows how to pitch, but whose knowledge isn't enough to necessarily guarantee a lot of success in the majors.

His game tonight against Tampa highlights the kind of starts where Braden might be successful. The Rays are a low BA team (.259, 9th in the A.L.) who are third in the A.L. in walks. Braden was able to keep the Rays off balance, and induced enough outs against a line-up that really hasn't been that successful at making contact.

The problems will come when Braden faces a team like the Angels or the Rangers: teams that make better contact. Braden's BABIP in the minors the last two years has been .306 and .303; in the majors last year, he was at a whopping .355. You can argue that this number will come down (and it probably will), but without a big time strikeout pitch, it won't come down that much in the majors.

Fangraphs shows that Braden's thrown a slider more in his limited MLB time this year and thrown his change less. Still, that slider's coming in at 76.4 MPH on average. It's a slow pitch for a slider. Again, Braden knows how to use his stuff, but pitchers like this have so little margin for error. His major league numbers last year kind of emphasize that. I'm not expecting Braden to do that badly this year, but I wouldn't bet on him posting anything better than a 4.5 ERA and a 1.3 or 1.35 WHIP.

Would I avoid Braden? I would if I had a strong contender who didn't need to take many chances. If, on the other hand, I was in a one and done league and in the middle of the pack, I might roll the dice. The A's seem reluctant to bring up Gio Gonzalez, and Braden could stick in the rotation even if the A's do bring up Gonzalez, since I think they might consider limiting Dana Eveland and Greg Smith's innings at some point. Braden might not be a world beater, but he could be good enough for long enough to have an impact. He's certainly a better risk than someone like Zach Miner or Sid Ponson, guys who the league has already seen and are less likely to put together a hot streak like Braden might.