Ben Sheets

Over at Patton and Company, TJRohr asks:

I'm done for '08. I'm in an NL-only $260 4x4. Another owner has offered me Sheets ($22) and Barton for Wagner ($30) and Adam LaRoche ($11). I don't think I'll do it under any circumstances, but, anybody have any leads on where he'll be next year?

It's hard to say even in November where Sheets will be, let alone in late July.

But the Brewers do look like a team that has gone from hoarding their money to spending it. Cot's Baseball Contracts lists the Brewers payrolls from 2000-2008, and they've increased the money they're spending every year from 2004-2008. Their payroll has jumped from $27.5M in 2004 to almost $81M this year. Their attendance has jumped during that time, too, from 20th in the majors in 2004 and 2.1M fans to 11th this year, and on pace to draw about 2.9M.

So I'd imagine that they're going to at least keep the payroll in the same $81M neighborhood. The Brewers remind me of the 1990s Indians. Their revenue is tied in to their attendance, and they're not going to start spending less money.

They've also got a number of players who will be free agents after this season. Besides Sheets, C.C. Sabathia, Eric Gagne, Ray Durham, Mike Cameron, Guillermo Mota, Salomon Torres, Craig Counsell and Brian Shouse are either free agents or the Brewers hold a team option. Amazingly, according to Cot's site, $55.7M worth of contracts could come off the books for the Brewers. There are some buyouts of some of the club options, but that still leaves Milwaukee with a lot of money to play with.

If I had to guess, I'd say that the Brewers would try to bring either Sheets or Sabathia back. It looks like a thin pitching market this winter, with John Lackey being the only other pitcher in Sheets or Sabathia's ballpark who might be available (I suspect the Angels will take Lackey's $9M team option). Of the free agents listed for the Brewers above, I can't see many of them coming back. Gagne and Durham are probably gone, and the Brewers seem like they're smart enough to let Cameron walk, knowing that another bargain could present itself in the winter.

So do the Brewers sign Sheets?

They're not afraid to spend money on pitching, as evidenced by the four year, $42M deal they handed Jeff Suppan in the winter of 2006-2007. I'm not sure Sheets is a risk they're definitively committed to taking, but I think they'll make an honest attempt to re-sign him.

At this point, that's the closest anyone can come to making a prediction.