New Closers?

Over at Ask Rotoman's discussion forum, lewp writes:

Rumors are flying on various deals that impact the closing situation. Guess they always do this time of year. But, which deals are likely to happen, and what current non-closers will be picking up saves as a result?

Let's take a look. I'll link the players to Tim Dierkes' MLB Trade Rumors blog and the most recent rumors tied to those players.

American League
George Sherrill: It's been assumed since Opening Day that the Orioles would use Sherrill as the closer all year and then dump him for prospects. I think that's definitely possible, but it's not entirely certain. The O's say they're looking for "2-3 prospects" for him, and might hold out for a lot. Their bullpen isn't exactly loaded; and they can use the depth that Sherrill provides next year as a set-up or a LOOGY/one inning set-up guy. The Orioles also have some cost control tied to Sherrill, although arbitration might change that if an arbiter looks at 30-35 saves. I think Sherrill's available, but he's not a lock to be moved. Odds of a trade: 40%. Candidates to close if he's traded (in order of likelihood): Jim Johnson, Chad Bradford, Fernando Cabrera, Radnor Bierd.

Huston Street: Street's probably the most attractive reliever on the market. He turns 25 next month, isn't eligible for free agency until 2010, and would immediately bolster a contender's bullpen as a set-up man. The question is whether or not Billy Beane sees enough of a market for Street, or if he thinks it would be better to wait until this winter (or later) to try and duplicate some of the success he had making a big splash with Dan Haren and Nick Swisher. I can see why Beane would move Street. Street's not locked up to a long-term deal, his salary will go up in arbitration, and the A's have stockpiled a deep bullpen. On the other hand, I don't think Beane will give Street away. I think it's likely the A's hang on to Street, given that he's not an impending free agent and the A's have already shed some payroll with the subtraction of Joe Blanton and Rich Harden. Odds: 35%. Candidates: Alan Embree, Santiago Casilla, Joey Devine, Brad Ziegler.

Todd Jones: I don't see much of a market for the 40-year old closer, and the Tigers are unlikely sellers (though that could change if they get swept by the White Sox this weekend). If they did fade from the race, Jones seems like someone who would slip through waivers pretty easily, and the Tigers might want him to go if only to get a long look at Joel Zumaya and/or Fernando Rodney in the role. Odds: 1%. Candidates: Zumaya, Rodney, Freddy Dolsi, Aquilino Lopez.

B.J. Ryan: I mention him only because the Blue Jays are viewed by many as sellers, and Ryan's certainly got a big contract. That contract though, will prevent him from being moved; with $20M left in 2009-2010, I don't see Ryan going anywhere. Only a team like the Yankees would dare do it, and I don't see the Jays making a trade in their division. Odds: <1%. Candidates: Scott Downs, Jason Frasor, Jesse Carlson.

National League
Damaso Marte: There are a lot of rumors swirling around the Pirates right now, with Jason Bay and Xavier Nady the bigger names being floated. However, only Marte is a probable free agent after this year (the Pirates hold a prohibitively expensive $6.5M option), so I'd expect the Pirates to seriously consider shopping Marte. He's been a pretty solid pitcher throughout his career, he's left-handed, and he strikes out over a batter an inning. He won't come cheap, but he probably won't require in quality what the Rockies are allegedly asking for Brian Fuentes. I think Marte gets moved at the deadline. Odds: 75%. Candidates: Tyler Yates, John Grabow, Denny Bautista.

Brian Fuentes: Fuentes is the biggest name in the reliever market, and the one garnering the most attention. He's been linked to just about every contender in both leagues, and the rumors surrounding the Rockies asking price have been entertaining, to say the least. Now there are reports that the Rockies might move from selling mode to buying mode since they're only six games out of first and the N.L. West is soft. I'm still of the mindset that even if the Rockies don't go into full blown sell mode, they'll move Fuentes. He's a free agent after this year, and the Rockies have been pretty good lately about exercising cost control and avoiding getting locked into players who are too expensive for what their role is. Odds: 60%. Candidates: Taylor Buchholz, Manny Corpas, Matt Herges.

Trevor Hoffman:Hoffman's been asked about by contenders, but he's probably the Padres biggest icon in their entire history this side of Tony Gwynn. He's given the Padres hometown discount after hometown discount, and I think Kevin Towers wouldn't move Hoffman unless Hoffman walked into the front office and gave the Padres permission. Beyond all of that, Hoffman is the same age as Jones, believe it or not, and isn't the same dominant pitcher he once was. He'd be a nice addition, but the Padres would probably want a lot before moving their franchise player. Odds: 1%. Candidates: Heath Bell, Heath Bell, Heath Bell. It's pretty obvious that Bell will step into the role the second Hoffman decides to hang it up.