Monday, July 14, 2008

A.L. FAAB Log: July 13, 2008

Sean Gallagher $33. Other bids $16, $13, $12, $12, $11, $5.
A nice tactical move by the owner in first place to keep Gallagher away from any of his competitors. He also light on a starting pitcher while Shaun Marcum's on the shelf, so he makes a nice short-term play. I'd guess that this owner waives Gallagher or trades him to a non-contender in an late, smallish dump deal.

If you are playing for this year, the reports from Athletics Nation were glowing about Gallagher's first start. He hit 97 on the gun (probably the fast gun) and was throwing his slider with sharp bite. He's probably one of the better starting pitchers you're going to see out there on the wire this year, since the few remaining big names on the trade market are A.L. pitchers. Even if Gallagher's only a league average pitcher, you're probably better off with him than you'd be with the free agent dreck that's sitting around right now. An excessive bid, but a nice play nonetheless.

Matt Murton $12. Other bids $6, $5, $4. $3.
All of the A's optimists and the Murton backers are talking about his career 810 OPS across 870 major league AB. That's well and good, but Murton was hitting for zero power this year at AAA Iowa, with 1 HR and a 382 SLG across 191 AB. He theoretically could be a 15-20 HR guy, but the A's have a logjam of OF and Murton's probably not as good as Carlos Gonzalez, Ryan Sweeney, Travis Buck or Jack Cust in the long term. He'll certainly get a chance to prove himself, but don't expect the power to necessarily come back.

Juan Rivera $11. Other bids $10, $7, $7.
Mike Scioscia announced earlier this week that Gary Matthews Jr. has been benched in favor of Rivera. A longer post would be necessary to compare the two outfielders, but I don't see this as a long term move. Rivera's been struggling this year, too, is a 30 year old outfielder, and the Angels lose quite a bit with Rivera's defense. There's a good chance they're trying to build up Rivera's trade value (the Mets are rumored to be interested), in which case this is an OK short-term pickup. I wouldn't get excited here, though. Rivera posted a nice year in 2006 as a full-timer, with an 887 OPS...though Matthews posted a better year in that same season. We'll see what happens here. Matthews is overpaid and the Angels signed him to a foolish contract following that 2006 season, but this is a foolish play by the Angels if they insist on going forward with it.

Jarrod Washburn $2. Other bid $1.
I wrote about Washburn at length yesterday. I won't rehash all of those points, but Washburn has mostly benefited from an easy schedule in his last few starts. He's tentatively scheduled to face the Indians in his first game after the break, but the sledding gets much tougher for Seattle in the second half, with series on tap against Boston, Toronto, Texas, Baltimore, Minnesota, Tampa Bay and L.A.

Jim Johnson $1.
This guy has pitched lights out but hasn't been owned all year in this A.L. I've considered picking up for weeks, so I can tell you that Johnson's K/IP and his BABIP don't speak to the same level of success that he's had, and there's already been a market correction in July. The upside is that he could close for the rest of the year if the Orioles do flip George Sherrill at the deadline. Johnson's not a typical closer, but his stuff has good deception and motion, and he's been a better raw pitcher this year than Sherrill has by a wide margin.

Dennys Reyes $1.
Reyes has a pretty ERA and WHIP, but that's mostly the product of a lights-out April, Since then, Reyes has been rather mediocre, and his K/IP and K/BB is a cause for concern, to put it mildly. Reyes isn't worth owning even in deep A.L. only leagues like this one.

Boone Logan $1.
You have to like Logan striking out nearly a batter an inning, but he's slipped a little bit lately since Ozzie Guillen's been using him in longer appearances with Bobby Jenks out and the bullpen stretched due to a few extra inning games. Logan's a guy who might fit in at the back of a Roto pitching staff, but only if you have a few starters who can give you a better shot at wins, as well as whiffs in 5x5.

Brendan Harris. Claimed by 12th, 8th, 7th, and 5th place teams.
Harris has had a terrible year, but he just put up a hot week, so he should be grabbed in most leagues where he was dropped. Harris is probably stretched offensively as a regular, but that's how the Twins will probably use him most of the way. As such, he's worth owning, but you'd better have two better options on your active roster at middle infield.

Donnie Murphy. Claimed by 8th place team.
Murphy was claimed simply to fulfill a positional requirement after a trade. Many thought that Murphy would replace the inevitably injured Bobby Crosby, get a few home runs, and be a decent $1 middle infield play. It hasn't worked out that way, as Crosby's been relatively healthy, and Murphy's been a bust. Expectations were low, but sometimes these little guys can carry a team to a victory. It didn't work out that way with Murphy this year.

Clete Thomas. Claimed by 7th place team.
With Matt Joyce hitting very well, Thomas hasn't played much, and he hasn't done much when he's played. If you're not in an OBP league, Thomas is virtually worthless.

Willie Aybar. Claimed by 5th place team.
Aybar's been getting a good amount of AB at DH for the Rays lately, which is a mystery given his lack of power and the fact that Cliff Floyd and Gabe Gross are better options. Aybar can pop the occasional home run, but like Thomas isn't a guy worth owning unless you're in a league with a 1-3 game positional requirement and can slot him in at 2B. Even then, he's an extremely weak play in A.L. only leagues.

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