CC Sabathia $100. Other bids $100, $78, $67, $67, $66, $60, $53, $47, $18, $17.
We all know who Sabathia is and what he can do for a contending squad, so writing about his potential to help out an N.L. team is kind of worthless. Instead, I'll do what I did last year with Roger Clemens and analyze each team's bid based on how much FAAB they had left, where they were in the standings, and whether or not they made the right move or not.
Rich Harden $76. Other bids $68, $65, $62, $57, $53, $52, $37, $15.
I'll do the same for Harden; whether it's in another post or rolled into the same post about Sabathia remains to be seen. I do feel like, injury risk or no, these bids for Harden are soft. The owner who bought CC also put in a $100 back-up bid on Harden, which was the right play. If he goes out and gets hurt after his next start, it's still the right play to bid the bank on Harden. The upside is too good to pass up. It is worth pointing out that, unlike the A.L. I track, this league doesn't use waivers, so if you cap out on someone, you're done making free agent pick-ups for the season.
Josh Johnson $4. Other bids $3, $3, $2.
Given the fact that Johnson's a mere 12 months removed from TJ surgery, last night's start had to be viewed as a rousing success, even if three runs in five IP isn't a Roto success. Johnson's certainly a risky play for this year, but teams out of the running should have bid at least $10 for a guy who earned $20 in 4x4 in 2006 and definitely has more upside in 2009 and beyond than most pitchers you'll see in a deep league's free agent pool.
Bronson Arroyo $2. Other bid $1.
The strikeouts are there, but Arroyo's been pretty hittable this year, and is a terrible risk for a contender. Not surprisingly, both these bids were made by the teams in 12th and 10th and who are playing for 2009. The winning bidder has done a nice job picking pitchers up off the scrap heap and flipping them for picks if they bounce back. I don't think Arroyo's a good bet to bounce back, but nothing ventured, nothing gained.
Ivan Ochoa $1.
Ochoa's a non prospect who the Giants called up to back-up middle infield and occasionally spell the ancient Ray Durham/Omar Vizquel middle infield combo. Ochoa's got a lot of speed and his batting eye is probably major league tolerable, but he's not someone who slots in as more than a long term utility infielder due to a severe lack of any kind of extra base power.
Ian Snell $1. Other bid $1.
Snell's been a little unlucky with his BABIP, but his K/IP is still down and his overall numbers are simply awful. I don't know if 2007 was a fluke or if this is just a bump in the road for Snell, but 2007 does look an awful lot like the outlier season right now. Snell could turn it around, but I'd avoid him. Snell was picked up by the same team that grabbed Arroyo, so this is once again a play to flip him if he turns it around.
Alex Romero $1.
Romero was supposed to ride the pine after his call-up earlier this week, but his defense earned him a couple of starts against the Phillies over the weekend. Romero slots in down the road as a 4th or 5th OF. He doesn't have a lot of speed and his power has mostly been of the doubles variety. His D could earn him some more starts, but I wouldn't expect much.
Kory Casto $1.
With the recent news that Wily Mo Pena's been playing with a bum shoulder for the last month, Casto could get some more frequent time in the OF. That's the good news; the bad news is that Casto hasn't done much with the stick this year in his brief MLB trials, and is looking more these days like a faded prospect than a late bloomer. He's OK if only because the Nationals don't have better OF options right now, but that's damning with virtually no praise whatsoever.
John Baker $1.
Baker is a unique player: a 27-year old non-prospect who could actually earn a little money if he puts together a hot streak. He's a Marlins catcher, which means that all that's standing in his way his Paul Hoover and an injured Matt Treanor. He was having a solid if not spectacular year at AAA Albuquerque before his promotion. He's certainly worth the $1 stab, and in deep leagues where everyone insists on having two active major league catchers, you might want to bid $2 or $3.
Henry Blanco $1.
Geovany Soto's back-up is probably one of the worst options at catcher in the National League.
Chad Gaudin $1. Other bid $1.
The smaller piece of the Rich Harden trade, Gaudin is another solid middle reliever in 4x4 formats. Some speculate that the Cubs grabbed him as insurance for Harden, since Gaudin was a starter for the A's last year. I should add that Gaudin is a pitcher who elicits mixed reactions from touts. Some think he's got a great deal of potential due to a strong repertoire of pitches, while other think that Gaudin's a pedestrian pitcher who won't slot in better than a #4 or #5. It's moot while he's in the pen, and right now he's better used as Harden insurance then anything else.
Brandon Backe $1.
Backe put up his best start of the year yesterday against the Nationals, but is a poor bet this year, particularly because he's given up 22 HR in 111 2/3 IP. He has borderline value in 5x5 because of the strikeouts, but shouldn't be owned in 4x4 right now. He tentatively has the Cubs in his next start, and shouldn't be used for that outing.
Fernando Tatis $1. Other bid $1.
Tatis is riding an out-of-his-mind hot streak right now, and the bids probably should have been more aggressive than they were here. With Moises Alou out for the year, Tatis will continue to platoon in the OF, but the Mets have been actively looking for an upgrade. Tatis' poor BB/SO indicates that pitchers will start having more success with him if they start getting him to chase. He's obviously a poor bet to keep hitting this well, but there's no shame in riding the hot hand.
Craig Counsell $1.
Counsell used to have sneaky value in Rotisserie leagues when he was starting and stealing 15-25 bases. He's a backup who doesn't run much anymore, and has two strong options firmly planted in front of him at 2B and SS in Milwaukee. Almost no value.
Darin Erstad $1. Other bid $1.
Erstad's been getting semi-regular AB in favor of the struggling Michael Bourn. Erstad's hitting for good batting average but doing little else. He should continue to be a bench player, but Cecil Cooper joins the litany of people who have been sucked in by the fact that Erstad's a gamer who gives his all on every play.
John Grabow $1.
If Damaso Marte gets traded, the Pirates will probably go with a closer-by-committee. Grabow could certainly be part of that committee, though his fly ball tendencies wouldn't make him my first choice for closer. In a very limited sample size, the lefty has pitched much better at home this year and against righties. He's put up 6 1/3 strong innings this July after getting pounded in June. He's a poor bet as a closer, but then so are the rest of the non-Marte relievers in this bullpen.
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