One of our anonymous friends here at the blog wrote a response where he discussed his use of "Plus/Minus" theory for his auctions.
One thing you want to be careful about, is simply targeting "bargains" and leaving it at that. Your goal isn't only to get "value", it is to field a team that will accrue enough points to win your league. This point is vital, and one I'm afraid I don't devote enough attention to in this space. Theory is nice, but you have to buy a team, and some players will fit better into your strategy than others.
I thought I'd take a quick look at some of the players I passed on in the early rounds of my A.L. auction last year that I let slip at $2 or more below my par bid limit, when the minuses were mounting:
Round 1: Mike Piazza $19 (+2), Alex Rodriguez $42 (+2)
Round 2: Miguel Tejada $35 (+2), Ichiro Suzuki $38 (+2)
Round 3: Johnny Damon $28 (+2)
Round 4: Mark Buehrle $14 (+3)
Round 7: Brad Wilkerson $12 (+2)
Three players into the eighth round, the minuses totaled $104, yet only seven players that I didn't buy fell in at prices $2 or $3 below their bid limits. Looking at these prices, A-Rod's the only player I felt bad about at the time. I came into this auction with 11 slots to fill on offense, and didn't want to commit too much money to one player. I did OK later with Brandon Inge at $10 (earned $11, but more than $1 profit if you factor in inflation) but crashed and burned with Joe Crede at $14 ($1). I would have been better off splurging on A-Rod.
The rest of these players didn't make as much sense for me, even though they were "pluses". I bought Jason Varitek later for $14, even though he was a par player with inflation, but felt like he worked out, even though he only earned $11. I said $34 on Tejada but couldn't bring myself to say $36; I already had Carlos Guillen frozen and didn't need to race to buy a SS. Damon and Suzuki were bargains, but I was targeting Brian Roberts and got him for $29, only $1 below my sheet price. Buehrle might have made sense for me, but I had already spent the money I had allocated for pitching by this point. By the time Wilkerson came up, there were more attractive CO/OF options I was targeting.
As I mentioned above, I bought some players who weren't as attractive and were even at par. Brian Roberts was only $1 below my par bid, but I felt like getting 35 SB from a middle infield slot was too good to pass up at $29. Jermaine Dye at $29 didn't work out, but I wanted power more than I wanted speed when he came up. Varitek was the last halfway decent catcher available. Alex Rios was someone I was excited about and, at $27, seemed like a cornerstone player worth gambling a little bit on. My pitching acumen wasn't there, though; I won't waste your time trying to defend my Rich Harden and Bartolo Colon buys over par.
Remember that bid limits are important, and you don't want to fly over them, but paying par on occasion isn't a bad thing if you're trying to fill a need or make sure you get enough stats in a certain category or categories.
1 comment:
Hey Mike,
You know me, I'll talk about this stuff mostly anywhere -- this year has been more difficult than others due to the day job, it's been hard enough for me to put Alex's bids together, much less participate much in other discussions. But, your note at pattonandco.com made me feel a little guilty . . .
I'm not really sure it is that different between what I do for Alex and what I do for my own league. Obviously, I have a better feel for what my league-mates will do. However, I also feel a little conflicted about adjusting my bids too much -- not least because I might be wrong, maybe Ty Wigginton does end up going for $8 instead of $11, and my other bids will then be off.
I guess what it boils down to is, I tend to add at least a couple of dollars to my bid limits on guys I'm targeting, because I would rather get them for less than have to go higher. At the auction, though, I agree with you (I think) that I'll adjust on the fly, either stopping early or going higher than my limits, based on what's happening in the auction.
I doubt that too many of your readers are overly rigid (though it's true that in stage three one needs to be more disciplined than in stages one and two), but there is the danger that one treats their lists as very hard limits, and ends up with $20 left on the table. And that tends to be the worst possible outcome. I'm reminded of Abbie Hoffman's advice about demonstrations, which I absolutely think applies to fantasy auctions and drafts: prepare meticulously, execute organically.
best,
mike
Post a Comment