National League Positional Battles - March 15, 2008 Edition

A joyous Ides of March to you all. Perhaps there is no better day to discuss the positional battles in the National League that will directly impact your bid limits, your freeze list and your auction. Specifically, I will be taking a look today at the Los Angeles Dodgers, Cincinnati Reds and New York Mets.

Juan Pierre, Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier

I cannot imagine how many teams would like to have the problem the Dodgers have in the outfield. Kemp is the best athlete of the bunch. Ethier is a solid hitter. Juan Pierre's speed is game-changing.

Andruw Jones changed the entire complexion of this position battle. Unfortunately, there are only about 1300 total ABs for this group. That does not include Delwyn Young, who, in my opinion, will turn into a nice 4th outfielder. So what does Joe Torre do?

Joe Torre loves veterans, so I find it hard to believe that Pierre does not start in left field. From a fantasy perspective, it is hard to argue. While the OBP is not very good, the average is close to .300, and 60+ steals will not hurt your fantasy production. The problem, of course, is that the average is empty and moving to a corner outfield position will expose Pierre's lack of other production.

Ethier, unfortunately, is the odd-man out. Even Torre cannot put Kemp on the wrong side of a platoon. Here's the rub...after the criticism Ned Colletti took last year as part of the Dodgers collapse (unrightfully so) and the verbal beating he took from Jeff Kent, Colletti may continue his fine tradition of trading young talent for past prime veterans. If your league does not carry stats traded over to the American League, you must factor this in to your bid limit; I would only tick it down a dollar or two at most. But you will cry if he is on the Rays come June.

Toz bid limits: Pierre $19; Kemp $20; Ethier $6

Nomar Garciaparra and Andy LaRoche

Let's stay in LA. This position battle is over now, with LaRoche out for about two months. Garciaparra is banged up as well, though not as seriously. Garciaparra's steep decline in production last year combined with his liabilities playing third are giving the Dodgers cause for concern. While Torre likes veterans, and remembers Garciaparra very well from his Red Sox/Yankees rivalry days, LaRoche cannot stay in the minors forever. If you are eying this positional battle, there are three likely outcomes: one, the Dodgers trade for a third baseman (see Joe Crede, Brandon Inge, Wes Helms and others); two, Garciaparra stays until LaRoche is healthy, and then is traded back to the AL where he can DH; three, LaRoche gets healthy and Garciaparra finds the bench.

I cannot see giving Garciaparra or LaRoche a bid limit in excess of double digits. I've ticked Garciaparra down since the CBS Sportsline N.L. Auction and LaRoche up, but neither crack $10. You may also want to put Tony Abreu down for a bid at this point; he'll be worth his $1 and more.

Toz bid limits: Garciaparra $9, LaRoche $6, Abreu $1.

Corey Patterson, Ryan Freel, Norris Hopper, Jay Bruce

I cannot imagine that slow sinking feeling Freel felt when he was told he would be competing with Hopper and Bruce for his starting job. That sinking feeling got a lot worse with the acquisition of Patterson.

The best place to start is here. Jay Bruce is going to be a heck of a hitter in the major leagues. Do not expect him to be up before August. If he did not suffer a quadriceps injury early in spring training, perhaps he could have earned the spot (he really is that good); with the injury and Patterson's acquisition, however, AAA seasoning is in order. How good is Bruce, by the way? He had 576 plate appearances (only 74 at AA, where he hit the ball so hard the organization was afraid he might hurt someone and moved him up to AAA) and 80 extra base hits, including 26 home runs.

So that leaves three. Patterson is clearly the front runner for the job. Patterson is a left-handed hitter and Freel/Hopper are righties, so there is the potential for a platoon. Over the last three years, Patterson hit .234 against lefties, and the NL has quite a few good ones (see Johan Santana, Cole Hamels, et al.

So that leaves Freel and Hopper. This one is easy - Freel plays multiple positions and still has wheels. Hopper is three years younger with wheels, but his hitting is emptier than Freel's. On the other hand, Freel is going to get hurt at some point during the season, so Hopper is a guy you want on your reserve list if you have one.

Toz bid limits: Patterson $15 (for now - check back with me later); Freel $9, Hopper and Bruce (on reserve). If you can bid on players in the minors, like Bruce will be, I have to set a bid limit of at least $11 in keeper leagues.

Scott Hatteberg and Joey Votto

Again I will double up and look at the same team twice. I have a feeling that Hatteberg is going to win this competition for one reason and one reason only...he doesn't strikeout much. If Hatteberg and Votto were not both left-handed, this would be a perfect first year platoon for Votto. Hatteberg lost a lot of ABs against lefties last year, and justified the loss of those ABs with a .205 average. Unfortunately, Votto is also left-handed. At 24, he is ready for the majors and does not need any more time in the minors. One other thing, and this is why he gets a bid instead of a minor league designation - he can play the outfield a little bit.

If you would like an interesting read on Dusty Baker and what Cincinnati will look like this year, I suggest the following article taken from the Cincinnati Enquirer and long time beat writer John Fay.

Toz bid limits: Hatteberg $9, Votto $4 (again, in keeper leagues, you need to be more aggressive with Votto- I might go $9-$11, but I have not finalized his bid).

Moises Alou and any uninjured outfielder.

I had Alou at $14, which I then moved down to $12 because of injuries. Then, deciding that he had faith in my foresight, Alou went out and promptly got hurt. He should be back by June 1, and perhaps as early as May 15. Unfortunately, that will cost him about 130-140 plate appearances. Moreover, this injury is going to rob him of the power he has left in the bat - he can hit, for sure, but without the power, the value takes another big hit.

The real question is this: who is the caddie for Alou this year? I have to believe it is Endy Chavez, unless and until a replacement is found via trade (no, NY fans, Ben Johnson is not the answer, and no, you cannot have Lastings Milledge and Carlos Gomez back). I think we can bump Chavez up from $1 to $2-3, but I wouldn't get too excited. Angel Pagan now deserves a bid (see Baker on ruining potential careers - do I hear Hee Seop Choi calling?), as he could be an adequate 4th or 5th outfielder all season.

The real answer for the Mets is the acquisition of a true 4th outfielder. Marcus Thames is the name that keeps popping into my head, but I have not seen his name associated with the Mets too much. Cody Ross is another name that strikes me as a potential fit, assuming the Marlins continue their youth movement. The other trade issue is: whom do you move? The Mets emptied the farm for the most part, and their top remaining prospects aren't worth the guys in the Thames mold.

Toz bid limits: Alou $11, Chavez $3, Pagan $1

The next update: San Francisco Giants, Atlanta Braves, and an intriguing 4th and 5th outfielder battle for the Houston Astros.