Dumping Saves

Last spring, I talked briefly about dumping saves in a more general post about dumping one category. Joe wonders if this strategy could work in his league.

I play in a longstanding NL only 5x5 keeper league that has historically overvalued closers to a dramatic degree. The average price for a single closer in this league is $35, and Billy Wagner was held over at $40 a couple years ago. Meanwhile, those who might become closers - your Matt Lindstroms, Tony Penas and such - get bid up to nearly $10 at auction and fill the early rounds of the reserve draft.

I've never been brave enough to punt the category, and nobody has ever won our league doing so. But should I? I could hold over Jose Valverde at $30 - he'd go for $35 or more at auction - but I'm tempted to trade him for something more useful and going without a closer. Your thoughts?

I don't know what the inflation is like in your league, Joe, but it sounds to me like owners are valuing closers like you're playing 4x4.

Top 10 N.L. Saves 2007

Pitcher	SV	4x4	5x5	Diff.	LABR
Jose Valverde	47	$37	$22	-16	$16
Francisco Cordero	44	$34	$20	-14	$18
Trevor Hoffman	42	$35	$20	-15	$19
Takashi Saito	39	$42	$26	-16	$20
Chad Cordero	37	$27	$16	-11	$20
Billy Wagner	34	$30	$19	-11	$24
David Weathers	33	$26	$15	-11	$7
Kevin Gregg	32	$24	$16	-8	$7
Jason Isringhausen	32	$32	$19	-13	$12
Ryan Dempster	28	$17	$10	-7	$7
Average	37	$30	$18	-12	$15

The difference in Patton $ between 4x4 and 5x5 is astounding. You're simply not getting enough of an ROI on closers to bid much more than $30, even with inflation, to justify the high bids in your league. And, if your league is spending too much on saves, it probably means that there are value opportunities elsewhere in your auction based on the spending trend you describe.

My question for you would be: where is the money coming from that is being spent on closers? Is hitting going for less? Or are people skimping on starting pitching? From this knowledge, you could build a strategy around a value proposition where you either corner the market on hitting or top starting pitching and go from there. If teams in your league are spending $10 on the Tony Pena/Matt Lindstrom types who might get saves later on, there should be even more money to spend elsewhere.

If it's such a seller's market for closers, I would definitely move Valverde. I was in a league once where you could turn a two-for-one deal for a closer since people valued competing in the category so much. I'd pull the trigger if I were you. It sounds to me like you could get someone to really overpay.

Don't be afraid to toss a category overboard if your league is overpaying. If its overpaying by that much, you should be able to do very well in the other nine categories if you structure your bids for your auction correctly.